摘要
随着能源转型,天然气作为过渡能源,LNG市场兴起使其国际贸易扩大,LNG船的需求大增,为船舶公司带来机遇与挑战,但项目面临成本风险。为此,本文采用文献分析法梳理LNG项目成本风险评价指标体系,目标层锁定LNG成本风险,准则层从外部环境、技术、安全环保、供应链管理四维度剖析。运用层次分析法构建模型,以问卷调查、专家评价法确定因素相对重要程度,得出判断矩阵与权重,再借模糊综合评价法建立评价模型,邀5位专家定量分析风险因素。经计算,安全环保、供应链、技术成本风险较重要,外部环境相对低。最后依四维度提出LNG项目改进措施,助力能源转型稳步推进。
With energy transition,natural gas has emerged as a transitional energy source.The rise of the LNG market has expanded its international trade,leading to a surge in demand for LNG carriers.This presents both opportunities and challenges for shipping companies,though projects face cost risks.To address this,this study employs the literature analysis method to establish an evaluation index system for LNG project cost risks.The target layer focuses on LNG cost risks,while the criteria layer analyzes four dimensions:external environment,technology,safety and environmental protection,and supply chain management.Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),a model is constructed where questionnaires and expert evaluations determine the relative importance of factors,generating judgment matrices and weight allocations.Subsequently,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is developed,with quantitative risk factor analysis conducted by five experts.Calculations reveal that safety/environmental protection,supply chain,and technological cost risks carry greater significance,while external environment risks are relatively less critical.Finally,improvement measures for LNG projects are proposed across these four dimensions to support the steady advancement of the energy transition.
作者
季炜森
JI Wei-sen(Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212000,China)
出处
《价值工程》
2026年第6期16-19,共4页
Value Engineering
