摘要
基于拓展的引力模型,构建包含制度质量与贸易互补性指数等变量的面板数据模型,对2010—2023年中国与RCEP成员国的机电产品出口情况进行实证分析,研究采用混合效应模型进行回归。结果表明,中国与RCEP成员国之间的经济体量、人口规模、制度质量、贸易结构匹配度等因素均对出口产生显著影响,地理距离则会抑制出口。进一步测算实际出口与理论出口的比值评估贸易潜力,结果显示:中国机电产品对新加坡、日本和澳大利亚等国的出口趋于饱和,而对印度尼西亚、马来西亚等新兴市场的潜力尚未充分释放。据此提出加强制度互通、优化产品结构、重点开拓潜力市场与完善区域物流网络等政策建议。
Based on the extended gravity model,a panel data model incorporating variables such as institutional quality and trade complementarity index was constructed to empirically analyze China's exports of mechanical and electrical products to RCEP member countries from 2010 to 2023.The study employed a mixed-effects model for regression.The results indicate that factors including economic volume,population size,institutional quality,and trade structure matching between China and RCEP members significantly promote exports,while geographical dis⁃tance exerts a negative impact.Further evaluation of trade potential using the ratio of actual to theoretical exports reveals that China's exports of these products to countries like Singapore,Japan,and Australia are nearing satura⁃tion,whereas the potential in emerging markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia remains substantial.Accordingly,policy recommendations are proposed,including strengthening institutional interconnections,optimizing product structure,focusing on developing high-potential markets,and improving regional logistics networks.
作者
陈建华
陈伟
Chen Jianhua;Chen Wei(School of Economics,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang Guangdong 524000)
出处
《对外经贸》
2026年第1期17-22,41,共7页
FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE
关键词
RCEP
机电产品
拓展引力模型
贸易潜力
RCEP
Mechanical and Electrical Products
Extended Gravity Model
Trade Potential
