摘要
目的研究集中管理模式下各病区输入数据选取方式差异性对排队论M/M/C模型监护仪合理配置数量预测准确性的影响。方法选择10个病区作为研究对象,利用t检验判断各病区“工作日”和“双休日”及“工作日”和“法定节假日”医嘱使用时长规律是否一致,研究输入数据选取差异性。选取不同输入数据建立排队论M/M/C预测模型,结合护理要求和排队系统等待时长曲线推测监护仪配置数量预测区间,分别对比10个病区不同条件下预测区间与集中管理后优化数量差异值。结果外科系统5个病区“工作日”监护仪实际使用时长均高于“双休日”和“法定节假日”(t=9.246、8.261、5.755、2.712、2.258、8.827、10.758、4.289、3.682、2.431,P<0.05),内科系统5个病区“工作日”监护仪实际使用时长与“双休日”和“法定节假日”差异均无统计学意义(t=-0.216、-1.856、-0.528、0.732、1.979、-0.636、-1.155、1.961、0.668、1.178,P>0.05)。不考虑输入数据选取差异性条件下外科系统病区配置数量预测区间偏离实际配置数量(差值为1台或2台),内科系统病区无偏离;考虑模型输入数据选取差异性影响因素条件下全部病区数量预测区间与实际配置数量值无偏离。结论输入数据选取差异性因素对排队系统模型预测准确性具有一定影响,各医疗机构应结合病区性质等因素选取模型建立方法,降低影响因素导致的预测结果偏离程度,提升模型预测准确性和医疗设备精细化管理水平。
Objective To study how differences in data selection methods across wards affect the accuracy of predicting the optimal number of monitors using M/M/C queuing theory model under centralized management mode.Methods Ten wards of a hospital were selected as research subjects,t-test was used to determine whether the patterns of order usage duration were consistent between“weekdays”and“weekends”,as well as between“working days”and“statutory holidays”,and the differences of input data selection across wards was studied.Different input data were selected to establish M/M/C queuing theory prediction model.Combining nursing requirements and queuing system waiting time curve,the predicted range for the number of monitors was estimated.The differences between the predicted ranges and the optimized number after centralized management under different conditions across the 10 wards were compared.Results In surgical system,the actual monitor usage duration on“weekdays”was significantly higher than on“weekends”and“statutory holidays”across the 5 wards(t=9.246,8.261,5.755,2.712,2.258,8.827,10.758,4.289,3.682,2.431,P<0.05).In internal medicine system,differences in monitor usage duration between“weekdays”and“weekends”or“statutory holidays”was no statistically significant across the 5 wards(t=-0.216,-1.856,-0.528,0.732,1.979,-0.636,-1.155,1.961,0.668,1.178,P>0.05).Data selection without accounting for differences in input data selection,the predicted monitor configuration ranges in surgical wards deviated from the actual numbers by 1-2 monitors,whereas internal medicine wards showed no deviation.The influence of input data selection differences was considered,the predicted ranges for all wards matched the actual monitor configuration numbers without deviation.Conclusion It is demonstrated that differences in input data selection can affect the accuracy of predictions by queuing system models to a certain extent.All medical institutions should select the model establishment method based on factors such as the nature of the ward,so as to reduce deviation degree of prediction results caused by influential factors,improve the accuracy of model prediction and level of fine management of medical equipment.
作者
谢峰
王宇坤
李庚
王晓龙
郭米嘉
白玫
Xie Feng;Wang Yukun;Li Geng;Wang Xiaolong;Guo Mijia;Bai Mei(Department of Biomedical Engineering,Xuanwu Hospital Capital Medical University,Beijing 100053,China)
出处
《生物医学工程与临床》
2026年第1期93-98,共6页
Biomedical Engineering and Clinical Medicine
基金
北京市属医疗机构科研培育项目(PG2023017,PG2024017)。
关键词
集中管理
排队论
监护仪
合理配置数量预测
centralized management
queuing theory
monitor
reasonable allocation quantity prediction
