摘要
为评估长三角地区PM_(2.5)和O_(3)短期暴露的健康风险,并破解区域复合污染联防联控精准分区管理的难题,本文分析了2015−2023年长三角地区PM_(2.5)和O_(3)污染特征及其健康风险,并通过量化复合污染健康指数(CPHI),构建了以城市为节点、以城市间复合污染的相似性为权重的复杂网络,同时应用Girvan-Newman社区发现算法(GN算法)划分联防联控分区,并在各分区内识别关键城市节点以支撑分区内差异化协同治理。结果表明:①得益于近年来大气污染治理成效显著,2015−2023年长三角地区PM_(2.5)年均浓度下降38.31%;而O_(3)年均浓度波动上升11.15%,主要与前期防控重点差异及新型冠状病毒感染疫情影响有关。PM_(2.5)与O_(3)的浓度峰值分别出现在冬季(62μg/m^(3))和夏季(117μg/m^(3)),二者峰值差异由不同的人为活动与自然因素共同驱动。PM_(2.5)与O_(3)污染严重区域均集中在长三角北部地区,南部地区污染较低。②2015−2023年长三角地区归因于PM_(2.5)污染的早逝人数显著下降,无锡市等城市降幅(66%)较大,而归因于O_(3)污染的早逝人数波动上升,芜湖市等城市增幅(25791%)较大。③基于GN算法的社区划分结果,将长三角地区划分为5个复合污染特征相似的联防联控区(北部分区、中西分区、中东分区、西南分区和东南分区)。各分区关键城市节点的差异化治理策略为,无锡市、嘉兴市等关键通道城市强化跨市协同治理,无锡市、苏州市等高效枢纽城市可率先实施减排示范,而滁州市、六安市等边缘城市应聚焦本地源治理。研究显示,长三角地区PM_(2.5)和O_(3)污染特征及健康风险具有明显的时空分异特征,且基于城市间CPHI时间序列所划分的联防联控分区及其关键节点识别,可为长三角地区精细化协同治理提供科学的决策依据。
To assess the health risks associated with short-term exposure to PM_(2.5) and O_(3) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region and to address the challenge of accurately delineating zones for the joint prevention and control of regional composite air pollution,this work investigated the pollution characteristics of PM_(2.5) and O_(3) and their related health risks in the YRD from 2015 to 2023.By quantifying the Composite Air Pollution Health Index(CPHI),a correlation network was constructed with cities as nodes and the similarity of composite pollution between cities as edge weights.Meanwhile,the Girvan-Newman(GN)community detection algorithm was applied to identify the zones for joint prevention and control.Key city nodes were further identified to support differentiated and collaborative governance strategies within these zones.The results show that:(1)Benefiting from significant achievements in air pollution control in recent years,the annual average concentration of PM_(2.5) in the YRD decreased by 38.31%from 2015 to 2023,while that of O_(3) exhibited a wavelike increase of 11.15%,primarily due to differences in earlier pollution control priorities and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.PM_(2.5) and O_(3) concentrations peaked in winter(62μg/m^(3))and summer(117μg/m^(3)),respectively,reflecting the combined effects of anthropogenic activities and meteorological factors.Areas severely polluted by PM_(2.5) and O_(3) were mainly distributed in the north of the YRD,while southern areas experienced relatively mild pollution.(2)The number of premature deaths attributable to PM_(2.5) exposure showed a marked downward trend,with cities such as Wuxi seeing a relatively large decline(66%),whereas that attributable to O_(3) pollution exhibited a wavelike rise,with cities such as Wuhu registering a substantial increase(25,791%)in the YRD from 2015 to 2023.(3)Based on the GN community detection results,the YRD region was divided into five zones for joint prevention and control(Northern Zone,Mid-Western Zone,Mid-Eastern Zone,Southwestern Zone and Southeastern Zone),each characterized by similar internal composite pollution features.Differentiated governance strategies were proposed for key city nodes within each zone.Specifically,key corridor cities such as Wuxi and Jiaxing should strengthen cross-city collaborative governance,high-efficiency hub cities such as Wuxi and Suzhou could take the lead in demonstrating emission reduction practices,while peripheral cities such as Chuzhou and Lu′an are advised to intensify efforts to control local pollutant emissions.This study indicates that the pollution characteristics and health risks of PM_(2.5) and O_(3) in the YRD exhibit obvious spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics.And the division of joint prevention and control zones and the identification of key nodes based on the inter-city CPHI time series can provide a scientific decision-making basis for the refined collaborative governance of the YRD.
作者
宋晓伟
韩越梅
郝永佩
程鹏
朱晓东
孔媛
高宁馨
李思思
SONG Xiaowei;HAN Yuemei;HAO Yongpei;CHENG Peng;ZHU Xiaodong;KONG Yuan;GAO Ningxin;LI Sisi(College of Resources and Environment,Shanxi University of Finance&Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China;School of the Environment,State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210046,China)
出处
《环境科学研究》
北大核心
2026年第2期493-505,共13页
Research of Environmental Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(No.72104132)
山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(No.2024YB069)
2025年山财学者学术拔尖骨干人才科研项目(No.BY-XR25A059)。
