摘要
面对中国“双碳”目标下灌区系统减排的迫切需求,本研究致力于解决灌区多水源系统“取-供-用-排”全过程中由参数模糊性所导致的CO_(2)排放核算难题。通过引入情景分析和模糊集理论,构建基于不确定性的CO_(2)排放量化模型,以赵口引黄灌区二期工程为案例,核算2015年与2030年不同水文情景下的水-能-碳流动关系。结果表明:2030年灌区水资源消耗量较2015年增加21.96%~31.37%,能源消耗与CO_(2)排放分别增长44.14%~46.14%与22.89%~25.05%,其中能源消耗增速显著高于水资源消耗;生活与第二、三产业用水是CO_(2)排放的主要来源。该研究可为灌区推行低碳发展策略、支撑农业系统减排提供理论依据与决策支持。
There is an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions in irrigation systems,as specified in China’s“Dual Carbon”goals.This study addresses the challenge of quantifying carbon emissions in the multi-water source systems of irrigation districts,particularly in terms of the fuzzy parameter uncertainties associated with water withdrawal,supply,use,and discharge.An uncertainty-based model for assessing carbon emissions was developed by incorporating scenario analysis and fuzzy set theory,and was then applied in the Zhaokou Yellow River Irrigation District.The water-energy-carbon nexus associated with different hydrological scenarios in 2015 and 2030 was analyzed.The results indicated that water consumption will increase by 21.96%-31.37%by 2030,compared to 2015,while energy consumption and carbon emissions will rise by 44.14%-46.14%and 22.89%-25.05%,respectively,with energy growth significantly outpacing water use.The major contributors to carbon emissions were found to be domestic and secondary/tertiary industrial water use.These findings provide a theoretical foundation and decision-making support for the promotion of low-carbon strategies in irrigation districts,as well as the reduction of emissions in agricultural systems.
作者
于磊
杨睿峰
李智凯
左其亭
冯涛
朱大炯
郭孟津
YU Lei;YANG Ruifeng;LI Zhikai;ZUO Qiting;FENG Tao;ZHU Dajiong;GUO Mengjin(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Henan Water&Power Engineering Consulting CO.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450016,China)
出处
《水科学进展》
北大核心
2026年第1期81-93,共13页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFE0213100)
国家自然科学基金项目(52579024)。
关键词
水-能-碳关联
CO_(2)排放
灌区多水源系统
不确定性
取-供-用-排
water-energy-carbon nexus
CO_(2)emissions
multi-water resources system for irrigation districts
uncertainty analysis
water withdrawal-supply-use-discharge process
