摘要
以Global-Regional Integrated Forecast System with Modular Ocean Model(GRISTMOM)一体化模式为范例,构建了覆盖天气-次季节-季节尺度的0~90 d无缝隙预报流程,提出了一种兼具计算效率与预报性能需求的变分辨率无缝隙预报方案,并针对该无缝隙预报流程在分辨率切换过程中的连续性与平稳性,设计了一套系统化的定量评估框架。本研究在GRISTMOM一体化模式无缝隙预报系统的基础上,以GRISTMOM变分辨率预报试验为应用范例,通过对关键大尺度背景场、典型天气系统及热带季节内振荡(Madden-Julian Oscillation,MJO)等多尺度特征的综合分析,对该无缝隙预报系统变分辨率衔接流程的连续平稳性进行了定量评估。结果表明:1)10 km×10 km切换为100 km×100 km的变分辨率预报过程中,大尺度环流场的预报误差在变分辨率衔接过渡阶段平滑无突变,表明该无缝隙流程在大尺度环流场上保持良好的连续性和稳定性;2)在对不同时空尺度预报对象的检验中,台风(典型天气系统)的路径、强度、降水落区及其环流结构在分辨率转换前后具有良好的时空一致性,MJO(典型次季节变率)的位相轨迹及其相关的对流-风场传播特征也能够在不同分辨率衔接中保持平滑延续,表明该流程在多尺度天气-气候信号传递方面具有良好的物理完整性。
With the increasing demand for high-precision and long-lead-time seamless weather-climate prediction,the development of a cost-effective and dynamically coordinated seamless forecasting workflow,together with a scientific and systematic evaluation framework,has become a key challenge for next-generation integrated weather-climate prediction systems.Building on the achievements of the National Key Research and Development Program of China,“Integration and Application of Weather-Climate Integrated Model Based on Unstructured Grid”(hereafter referred to as“the program”),this study takes the Global-Regional Integrated Forecast System with Modular Ocean Model(GRISTMOM)as an example to construct a 0—90-day seamless forecasting workflow spanning weather,subseasonal,and seasonal timescales.A variable-resolution seamless forecasting strategy that balances computational efficiency and forecast skill is proposed,and a systematic quantitative evaluation framework is developed to assess the continuity and smoothness of the workflow during resolution transitions.Specifically,building upon the project-integrated GRISTMOM seamless forecasting system,variable-resolution forecast experiments are conducted as an application case.Through comprehensive analyses of key large-scale background fields,typical weather systems such as tropical cyclones(TCs),and the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)across multiple scales,the continuity and stability of the variable-resolution transition process are quantitatively evaluated.The results demonstrated that 1)during the transition from 10 km to 100 km resolution,forecast errors of large-scale circulation fields evolve smoothly without abrupt changes during the transition episode,indicating that the seamless workflow maintains excellent continuity and stability in large-scale fields;and 2)in validations using multi-scale objects,the tracks,intensity,precipitation area and circulation structures of TCs exhibit temporally and spatially consistent across resolution transition,and the phase-space evolution and associated convection-wind propagation characteristics of the MJO maintain continuous and coherent behavior.These results confirm the excellent physical integrity of the seamless workflow in transmitting weather-climate signals across scales.Overall,this study establishes a comprehensive framework encompassing seamless workflow construction and execution,quantitative design for continuity and smoothness assessment,and comprehensive evaluation,providing critical scientific support for the operational development of integrated seamless weather-climate forecasting systems in China.
作者
陈林
洪玉涛
李昊谦
周旋
孙明
容新尧
苏京志
刘波
马利斌
彭珂
张荣华
CHEN Lin;HONG Yutao;LI Haoqian;ZHOU Xuan;SUN Ming;RONG Xinyao;SU Jingzhi;LIU Bo;MA Libin;PENG Ke;ZHANG Ronghua(State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management(CPRM)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences/CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management(CPRM)/School of Marine Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)
出处
《大气科学学报》
北大核心
2026年第1期196-207,共12页
Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510000)
国家自然科学基金项目(42576024)
江苏省优秀青年基金项目(BK20230061)。
关键词
天气-气候一体化模式
无缝隙预报
无缝隙预报方案
变分辨率预报试验
无缝隙预报流程评估体系
weather-climate integrated model
seamless prediction
seamless prediction workflow
variable-resolution forecasting experiment
evaluation framework for seamless prediction
