摘要
本文基于中国家庭追踪调查2018年和2022年数据,研究独生女和非独生女在意愿生育数量与实际生育数量上的差异。研究显示,在采用工具变量法处理内生性问题后,独生女的意愿生育数量与实际生育数量均显著低于非独生女,在经过一系列稳健性检验后,主要结论依然稳健。机制分析表明,独生女因教育成就较高而面临更高的生育的机会成本,且对子女教育质量的偏好也更强,从而降低了其意愿生育数量。独生女更有可能获得隔代照料支持和经济支持的双重代际资源,在一定程度上缓解了生育约束。此外,抚育和养老仍主要依赖家庭供给,这对年轻家庭提升生育水平构成压力。异质性分析显示,生育的城乡差异仍显著存在,相较于农村地区,城镇独生女和非独生女在意愿生育数量与实际生育数量上的差异更大,城镇化在一定程度上扩大了这种生育差异。进一步分析发现,独生女生育首孩年龄普遍高于非独生女,传统生育观念较弱,再生育意愿较低,但独生女的意愿生育数量与实际生育数量匹配度更高,生育意愿更能真实反映有效生育需求。本文的研究结果表明,进一步释放生育潜力需从降低年轻家庭生育的机会成本、养育成本及赡养压力入手,为此应采取提高育儿福利和补贴、多渠道增加托育服务供给、完善养老保险体系等政策措施,以建设生育友好型社会推进人口高质量发展。
This study examines the gap between intended and actual fertility among Chinese women of childbearing age,focusing on the behavioral and structural differences between only daughters and those with siblings.Based on data from the 2018 and 2022 waves of the China Family Panel Studies,the study is grounded in the quantity-quality tradeoff,opportunity cost,and resource dilution theories.It uses ordered Logit and Probit models,employing the instrumental variables approach to address endogeneity issues.The results demonstrate that,compared to women with siblings,only daughters exhibit both significantly lower desired and actual fertility.This gap remains robust after a series of robustness checks.Mechanism tests show that only daughters allocate more resources to their children's education and have higher expectations for their children's academic achievements,reflecting a stronger"fewer but better"preference.Additionally,due to their higher educational attainment,income levels,and career potential,they face greater opportunity costs,which reduces their fertility intentions and delays childbearing.Moreover,only daughters are more likely to receive dual intergenerational support from the older generation,including both caregiving and financial support,which alleviates fertility constraints to some extent.Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the fertility gap is more pronounced among highly educated and urban women,indicating that urbanization and labor market participation amplify the role of opportunity costs.In rural areas,the fertility difference between only and non-only daughters is not significant.Further analysis reveals that only daughters generally have a higher age at first birth compared to non-only daughters,exhibit weaker traditional fertility views,and have lower intentions for further childbearing.However,the gap between their desired and actual fertility is smaller,and their fertility intentions more accurately reflect their actual fertility needs.By integrating micro-level behavioral mechanisms with the demographic policy context,this study helps explain the underlying causes of China's persistently low fertility rate.To further release fertility potential,it is essential to reduce the opportunity costs,childrearing costs,and caregiving pressures faced by young families.Policy measures should include improving childcare benefits and subsidies,increasing the supply of childcare services through multiple channels,and enhancing the pension insurance system,in order to build a fertility-friendly society and promote high-quality population development.
作者
邓金锋
罗楚亮
李竞博
DENG Jinfeng;LUO Chuliang;LI Jingbo(School of Labor and Human Resources,Renmin University of China;School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business)
出处
《中国农村观察》
北大核心
2026年第1期182-206,共25页
China Rural Survey
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“少子化倾向对家庭消费风险分散与内部资源配置的影响研究”(编号:72573110)。
关键词
独生女
意愿生育数量
实际生育数量
机会成本
隔代照料
Only Daughter
Fertility Intention
Realized Fertility
Opportunity Cost
Intergenerational Support
