摘要
基于以地方志为主的史料系统,重建清代江南地区若干子区域的农业收成指数序列,能够探讨农业收成序列在气候(灾害)-粮价解释分析中的作用。清代江南温度-收成指数序列间不一定具有显著相关性,因此温度序列不宜直接用于与粮价序列的对比分析。降水序列虽然对农业收成有显著影响,但因逐级影响的衰减效应,降水-粮价间的相关性要弱于降水-收成、收成-粮价这两个环节的相关性。在气候-粮价分析中,收成序列是不可或缺的一环。江南地区以18世纪中期为界,前期收成(气候)对粮价的年际波动影响显著,后期这种影响消失。在逐年分辨率与10年分辨率下,气候-粮价间的影响关系方向相反。在本地收成足以支撑本地市场的供应来源时,单年份气候波动可通过收成好坏迅速影响粮价变动,收成越好,粮价越低。但在10年分辨率下,气候(主要是温度)可能通过支撑更多人口导致更多需求,最终对应粮价上涨。在不同观察尺度下,气候与粮价间存在不同的影响途径与影响方向。
Based on a historical data system mainly composed of local chronicles,this study reconstructs the agricultural harvest index series for several sub-regions in Jiangnan during the Qing Dynasty,and explores the role of agricultural harvest series in the analysis of climate(disasters)-grain price relationship.Firstly,there may not be a significant correlation between temperature and agricultural harvest index series in Qing Dynasty Jiangnan,so the temperature series should not be directly used for comparative analysis with the grain price series.Although precipitation sequences have a significant impact on agricultural harvest,the correlation between precipitation and grain prices is weaker than the correlation between precipitation and harvest or between harvest and grain prices due to the attenuation effect of the cascading effects.Therefore,in the analysis of climate-grain prices relationship,the harvest sequence is an indispensable part.Secondly,in the Jiangnan region,with the mid-18th century as a dividing point,the relationship between harvest(climate)and grain prices differed before and after.In the earlier period,harvest(or climate)had a significant impact on the interannual fluctuations of grain prices,while this influence disappeared in the later period.Thirdly,the direction of the climate-grain price relationship is opposite at annual and decadal resolutions.When local harvests were sufficient to serve as the main supply source of the local market,annual climate fluctuations could quickly affect grain prices through harvest fluctuation—better harvest led to lower price.However,at a decadal resolution,climate(primarily temperature)may have supported a larger population,leading to increased demand and ultimately corresponding to rising grain prices.At different observational scales,climate and grain prices exhibit distinct pathways and directions of influence.
作者
康翊博
闫芳芳
杨煜达
Kang Yibo;Yan Fangfang;Yang Yuda
出处
《中国经济史研究》
北大核心
2026年第1期141-159,共19页
Researches in Chinese Economic History
基金
国家自然科学基金“明清时期气候变化对中国南方农业收成的影响机制与区域差异研究(1368—1911)”(批准号:42501288)
中山大学重大项目培育和新兴交叉学科培育计划项目“数字人文视野下明清广东气候灾害数据库建设与研究”(批准号:25wkjc11)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
清代
气候变化
江南地区
粮价
农业收成
Qing Dynasty
Climate Change
Jiangnan Region
Grain Price
Agricultural Harvest
