摘要
随着老龄少子化趋势的持续深化,家庭基于规避风险和平滑消费等行为的表现深刻影响了家庭金融资产配置格局。本文基于多期中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,运用Tobit模型进行检验,系统考察了家庭人口年龄结构对居民家庭金融资产配置的影响。研究发现,老年人口占比提升与少儿人口占比下降对家庭风险金融资产持有水平产生负向影响。机制分析表明,在主观动机层面,老龄少子化通过改变家庭风险承担意愿与金融认知水平,削弱其配置风险金融资产的内在动机;在客观约束层面,老龄少子化通过加剧家庭预防性储蓄行为形成投资约束,进而对风险金融资产配置资金产生挤出效应。异质性分析显示,相较于农村家庭、低收入家庭与不从事经营活动的家庭,人口年龄结构变化对城镇家庭、高收入家庭和从事经营活动家庭的风险金融资产配比影响更为显著。本文研究为优化家庭资产配置结构与风险管理提供了重要参考,也为应对人口结构的长期挑战有一定政策启示。
With the deepening trend of aging and declining birth rates,household behaviors such as risk aversion and consumption smoothing have profoundly influenced the landscape of household financial asset allocation.Based on multi-period data from the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)and employing the Tobit model,this study systematically examines the impact of household demographic age structure on residential financial asset allocation.The findings indicate that an increase in the proportion of elderly population and a decrease in the proportion of children have a negative effect on the holding level of risky financial assets.Mechanistic analysis reveals that,at the subjective level,aging and declining birth rates reduce the intrinsic motivation for allocating risky financial assets by altering household risk tolerance and financial literacy.At the objective level,these trends exacerbate precautionary savings behaviors,creating investment constraints and crowding out funds allocated to risky financial assets.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of demographic age structure changes is more pronounced in urban households,high-income households,and households engaged in business activities compared to rural households,low-income households,and non-business-activity households.This study provides important insights for optimizing household asset allocation structures and risk management,as well as policy implications for addressing the long-term challenges posed by demographic structural transformation.
作者
朱丹
汤可芊
王孝涵
Zhu Dan;Tang Keqian;Wang Xiaohan(School of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488)
出处
《南开经济研究》
北大核心
2025年第10期68-90,共23页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
中国社会科学院大学卓越研究项目“发展预期、治理机制与企业并购”(20250143)的资助。
关键词
老龄少子化
家庭人口年龄结构
风险偏好
资产配置
家庭金融
Aging and Declining Birth Rates
Household Demographic Age Structure
Risk Preference
Asset Allocation
Household Finance
