摘要
本文基于中国海关出口统计和人口普查数据,通过构建Bartik IV,考察了出口增速放缓对劳动力流动的影响。研究结果表明,出口增速放缓导致劳动力在城市间重新配置。根据基准估计系数所做的计算显示,城市劳均出口增长每减少1000美元,外地户籍劳动力的迁入率将下降0.74个百分点;其中,青年、已婚和高技能等外地户籍劳动力的迁入明显减少,省份间、农村户籍以及短期的劳动力流动减缓。这种负向效应主要体现在第三产业占比低的城市。拓展性分析表明,出口增速放缓对城市就业造成冲击、制造业就业在总就业中的份额减少。在就业调整的过程中,外地户籍劳动力被挤出的更多。在更换工具变量以及控制城市受到的其他冲击后,本文的研究结果依然稳健。
This paper explores the effect of an export slowdown on labor reallocation,employing data from the China Population Census and customs records.A shift-share instrumental variables strategy is utilized to identify the causal impact,and the results demonstrate that an export slowdown prompts the reallocation of labor.Specifically,our estimates indicate that for every USD 1,000 decline in export growth per capita,the immigration rate decreases by 0.74 percentage points.Notably,certain demographic groups,such as young individuals,married persons,and highly skilled non-hukou labor,experience a significant reduction in migration rates.Additionally,inter-provincial,rural,and short-term migration have also decelerated.Moreover,the negative effects of the export slowdown are also more pronounced in cities with a low proportion of the tertiary industry.Further analysis indicates that the export slowdown imposes shocks on urban employment,leading to a decrease in the share of manufacturing employment in total employment.There is a gradual shift in employment towards other sectors,and during this process of employment adjustment,nonhukou laborers are disproportionately displaced.Our findings remain robust using alternative instrumental variables and controlling for other city-specific shocks.
作者
刘子琦
罗长远
陈媛媛
Liu Ziqi;Luo Changyuan;Chen Yuanyuan(School of International Trade and Economics,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China;Institute of World Economy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《南开经济研究》
北大核心
2025年第10期49-67,共19页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球产业链重构对全球经济治理体系的影响及中国应对研究”(21&ZD075)
国家社会科学基金哲学社会科学领军人才项目(22VRC154)
国家社会科学基金一般项目“双向FDI促进“双循环”新格局构建的理论机制与实现路径研究”(22BJL104)
上海市哲学社会科学规划青年课题“智能制造驱动上海出口高质量发展的机制及路径研究”(2024EJB019)的资助。
