摘要
当前经济全球化进入了深化发展的新阶段。在美国,特朗普政府2025年年初宣布的“改变经济增长轨迹”的“再工业化”战略充分体现了MAGA运动反激进全球主义的基本立场。MAGA运动认为,区域民族国家的政治利益应高于资本的全球化经济利益,主张“美国优先”。MAGA运动还认为,当前美国已陷入致命挑战“铁三角”(巨额贸易逆差、失控的政府财政赤字、失控的债务累积)的国家紧急状态。解决致命挑战“铁三角”的出路是改变经济增长轨迹。具体实施政策是,通过征收对等关税、控制财政赤字和全面永久减税三个方面的行动,释放AI技术革命潜力,推动美国“再工业化”,以及借助“实力”重构全球供应链和贸易投资规则体系。基于以上观察,本文认为,当前经济全球化进程呈现出多轨道平行、相互竞争,总体继续深化发展的新趋势。创新型全球化取代复制型超级全球化时代已经显现。这一新趋势表现出三方面特征:“复制型供应链全球化模式”向“创新型供应链全球化模式”过渡、“自由导向的多边规则体系”向“安全导向的平衡规则体系”过渡、“供应链分工效率竞争”向“技术创新系统全栈竞争”过渡。
Economic globalization is now entering a new phase characterized by deeper integration.In the United States,the reindustrialization strategy of"changing the trajectory of economic growth"announced by Trump administration in early 2025 fully embodies the fundamental stance of the MAGA(Make America Great Again)movement against radical globalism.The MAGA movement holds that the political interests of nation-states should take precedence over the global economic interests of captital,i.e.,"America First"and"national security first".It also believes that the United States is currently in a state of national emergency,trapped in a fatal"iron triangle"of challenges:huge trade deficits,out-of-control government fiscal deficits,and spiraling debt accumulation.To resolve such an"iron triangle"of fatal challenges means to reshape the treajectory of economic growth.By imposing reciprocal tariffs,controlling fiscal deficits and implementing comprehensive and permanent tax cuts,the specific policies to be implemented will unlock the potential of the Al technological revolution,drive America's reindustrialization,and restructure the global supply chain and the trade and investment rule systems through hard power.Drawing on these observations,this paper contends that economic globalization is taking on a new course-one defined by parallel multi-track progression,mutual competition,and sustained deepening overall.Indeed,the era in which innovative globalization supersedes replicative hyper-globalization has already emerged.The new trends in the deepening development of current economic globalization are characterized by three transitions:the shift from a"duplicate-and-deploy"supply chain model to an"innovation-driven"one;the transformation from the market-oriented multilateral rules to security-prioritized regulatory framework;and the evolution from efficiency competition in supply chain division of labor to full-stack competition in technological innovation systems.
作者
王新奎
Wang Xinkui(Shanghai WTO Affairs Consultation Center,Shanghai 200336,China)
出处
《南开经济研究》
2025年第10期3-11,共9页
Nankai Economic Studies
关键词
经济全球化
MAGA运动
再工业化
AI技术革命
Economic Globalization
MAGA Movement
Reindustrialization
AI Technological Revolution
