摘要
研究基于西江高要水文站与北江石角水文站1964—2023年长序列径流观测数据,采用线性倾向估计、滑动平均及Mann-Kendall(M-K)突变检测方法,系统解析两江径流演变规律。研究结果表明:①流域径流量呈现显著年代际震荡特征,丰枯周期与降水周期相似;②西江径流呈弱递减趋势,北江未表现出明显趋势变化;③M-K突变检测揭示,高要站突变点与堤防工程强化、特大洪水事件及极端气候频发期存在时序关联;石角站突变点对应洪水事件、潖江蓄滞洪区投运等关键节点,但均未达0.05显著性阈值。研究表明,西、北江径流非平稳性演变是气候振荡与人类活动的复合响应。
This study is based on the long-term runoff observation data from 1964 to 2023 at the Gaoyao Hydrological Station on the Xijiang River and the Shijiao Hydrological Station on the Beijiang River.It employs linear trend estimation,moving average,and Mann-Kendall(M-K)abrupt change detection methods to systematically analyze the evolution patterns of the runoff in the two rivers.The research results show that:①The runoff in the basin exhibits significant interdecadal oscillations,with the wet and dry cycles similar to the precipitation cycles.②The runoff of the Xijiang River shows a weak decreasing trend,while the Beijiang River does not show a significant trend change.③The M-K abrupt change detection reveals that the abrupt change points at the Gaoyao Station are temporally associated with the reinforcement of the embankment project,the occurrence of extreme flood events,and the period of frequent extreme climate events;the abrupt change points at the Shijiao Station correspond to key nodes such as flood events and the operation of the Fangjiang Flood Storage and Detention Area,but none of them reach the 0.05 significance threshold.The study indicates that the non-stationary evolution of the runoff in the Xijiang and Beijiang Rivers is a combined response to climate oscillations and human activities.
作者
王超
梁树栋
WANG Chao;LIANG Shudong(Hydrological Branch of Foshan,Bureau of Hydrology of Guangdong Province,Foshan 528000,China)
出处
《广东水利水电》
2026年第1期1-6,共6页
Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower
关键词
珠江
西、北江
径流量
趋势分析
Pearl River Basin
Xijiang River and Beijiang River
runoff
trend analysis
