摘要
特朗普政府以“公平贸易”为名推行“对等关税”政策,对东盟国家产生巨大冲击。东盟未能形成统一的谈判框架,部分成员国通过单方面让步达成对美贸易协议。虽然短期贸易困境得到缓解,但东盟国家依然面临对美贸易环境不确定、经济转型难度增加、“选边站”压力加大、东盟整体性与中心性受损等中长期挑战。“对等关税”政策不仅将影响特朗普第二任期“印太战略”在东南亚的实施,也将影响东盟与中国关系以及区域一体化建设。如果应对得当,“对等关税”冲击有望被转化为地区合作深入发展的催化剂。
Under the banner of“fair trade,”the Trump administration has imposed“reciprocal tariffs”on a wide range of its trading partners,delivering a major shock to ASEAN countries.ASEAN has failed to establish a unified negotiation framework,and some member states have instead reached bilateral trade agreements with the United States through asymmetric concessions.Despite the temporary alleviation of immediate trade pressures,ASEAN countries continue to face a range of medium-to long-term challenges,including heightened uncertainty in their trade relations with the US,increased difficulties in domestic economic transformation,growing pressure to take sides between major powers,and erosion of ASEAN’s cohesion and centrality.The policy of“reciprocal tariffs”will not only affect the US implementation of Indo-Pacific strategy in Southeast Asia during Trump’s second term,but also have implications for ASEAN-China relations and the trajectory of regional integration.If managed effectively,however,the shocks created by“reciprocal tariffs”could be transformed into a catalyst for deeper regional cooperation.
出处
《国际问题研究》
北大核心
2025年第6期42-64,158,共24页
International Studies
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“特朗普2.0时代东盟国家战略选择研究”(编号:3162025ZYKC02)的阶段性研究成果。
