摘要
极端自然灾害频发和应急管理体系规范化建设背景下,为提升城市电网灾害应急水平、保障公共安全、降低灾害损失,提出台风天气下考虑应急响应机制的电网损失风险评估方法。基于台风风速时空演进特征分析,提出电网多时段预警模型;考虑多时段预警和应急响应提出电网灾害应急评估指标体系,基于考虑电网应急响应机制的评估指标逻辑关系,提出电网损失风险评估方法,考虑电网业务部门应急工作的流程及效果评估损失风险。以台风“杜苏芮”为例,算例分析表明,多时段预警模型可反馈灾害期间城市电网遭受灾害影响程度的变化,损失风险评估方法可合理评估电网应急响应工作影响下的灾害公共安全风险。
Under the background of frequent extreme natural disasters and standardized construction of emergency management system,in order to improve the emergency handling level of urban power grid in response to disasters,ensure public safety and reduce disaster losses,an assessment method of power grid loss risk considering emergency response mechanism in typhoon weather is proposed.Based on the analysis of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of typhoon wind speed,a multi-period early warning model for power grid is proposed.Considering the multi-period early warning and emergency response,the index system for power grid disaster emergency response assessment is proposed.Based on the logical relationship of the assessment indexes considering the power grid emergency response mechanism,the power grid loss risk assessment method is proposed,which assesses the loss risk considering the process and effect of the emergency work of the power grid professional departments.Taking typhoon“Doksuri”as an example,the analysis shows that the multi-period early warning model can feed back the changes of disaster impact degree on urban power grid during disasters,and the loss risk assessment method can reasonably assess the public security risk of disaster under the influence of power grid emergency response work.
作者
肖涵
谢宁
王承民
张华一
XIAO Han;XIE Ning;WANG Chengmin;ZHANG Huayi(School of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China;State Grid Nanjing Power Supply Company,Nanjing 210032,China)
出处
《电力自动化设备》
2026年第1期14-22,共9页
Electric Power Automation Equipment
关键词
台风
自然灾害
灾害预警
应急响应
电网损失
风险评估
typhoon
natural disasters
early warning of disaster
emergency response
power grid loss
risk assessment
