摘要
中国作为全球最大的农产品进口国,进口供给面临着日益加剧的地缘政治风险挑战。文章基于2000—2022年中国农产品进口数据,研究了地缘政治风险对中国农产品进口供给的影响。结果显示,(1)进口来源国地缘政治风险会显著抑制其农产品出口,对中国农产品进口造成冲击,该结论通过了一系列稳健性检验。(2)异质性分析发现,“一带一路”国家和RCEP成员国在地缘政治风险下仍能维持对中国农产品输出的稳定性;较初级农产品和劳动密集型农产品,深加工农产品和土地密集农产品所受负面冲击相对较弱。(3)调节效应分析发现,进口来源国的对外开放度有助于缓解地缘政治风险对其农产品出口的冲击作用,而中国进口市场过度集中会加重其负面冲击。基于研究结论,文章从强化国内农产品自给能力、优化农产品进口结构、深化区域合作机制实践三个方面提出了相应的政策建议。
As the world’s largest importer of agricultural products,China's import supply is facing increasing geopolitical risks and challenges.The article is based on the data of China's agricultural product imports from 2000 to 2022,and studies the impact of geopolitical risks on China’s agricultural product import supply.The results are as follows.(1)Geopolitical risks in the source country of imports will significantly suppress its agricultural product exports and have an impact on China’s agricultural product imports.This conclusion has passed a series of robustness tests.(2)Heterogeneity analysis shows that the“the Belt and Road”countries and RCEP member countries can still maintain the stability of their export of agricultural products to China under geopolitical risks;The negative impact on primary agricultural products and labor-intensive agricultural products,as well as deeply processed agricultural products and land intensive agricultural products,is relatively weak.(3)The analysis of regulatory effects found that the degree of openness of import source countries to the outside world helps alleviate the impact of geopolitical risks on their agricultural exports,while excessive concentration of China’s import market will exacerbate its negative impact.Based on the research findings,this article proposes corresponding policy recommendations from three aspects:strengthening domestic self-sufficiency in agricultural products,optimizing the structure of agricultural product imports,and deepening regional cooperation mechanisms.
作者
刘雪梅
金信
Liu Xuemei;Jin Xin(Alibaba Business School,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 310000,China)
出处
《新疆农垦经济》
2026年第1期47-59,共13页
Xinjiang Agricultural Reclamation Economy
基金
2026年浙江省哲学社会科学规划年度常规课题(项目编号:26NDJC012YBM)
杭州师范大学加勒比地区研究中心开放课题。
