摘要
针对我国自然灾害频发、承灾体脆弱性高、系统韧性不足等问题,本文系统探讨了自然灾害风险调控管理体系的研究进展、趋势与突破途径。研究基于“人—灾—地”协同的风险调控管理需求,提出了涵盖理论、技术与国家三大体系的综合治理框架。理论体系包括全周期闭环灾害风险系统理论、三生空间协同韧性提升理论与多主体参与式调控管理理论;技术体系包括国土空间韧性规划技术、社区风险调控减灾技术与人群响应能力提升技术;国家体系包括灾害防治法律法规与技术标准体系、跨域跨级跨部门联动调控体系与全域韧性的城乡灾害智能管理体系。研究进一步凝练了多尺度灾害风险系统的跨层级传导机制与调控路径、复杂承灾体系统的动态脆弱性演化规律与协同韧性机理、多主体协同治理中的利益均衡机制与集体行动逻辑等关键科学问题,以及基于复杂系统理论的灾害风险级联建模与断链减灾、面向协同韧性的承灾体智能优化与自适应调控、基于演化博弈的多主体协同机制与智能治理、社区层面的分布式自组织减灾创新体系等关键突破方向。研究成果为构建覆盖全面、响应高效、社会协同的现代化灾害风险调控管理体系提供了理论支撑与实践指导。
To address critical challenges in China’s disaster risk mitigation,such as the increasing frequency of natural disasters,vulnerability of high-risk entities,and inadequate disaster prevention resilience,this study systematically investigated the pathways for establishing an integrated natural disaster risk mitigation and management framework.Grounded in the coordinated management requirements of the“human-disaster-earth”paradigm,we propose a comprehensive framework encompassing three interconnected pillars:theoretical,technical,and national systems.The theoretical system delineates foundational paradigms for risk mitigation across the entire life cycle of natural disasters,including multistakeholder participation,and synergistic resilience enhancement in the co-development of production-living-ecological spaces,thereby distinguishing risk governance(as an overarching multi-actor coordination)from targeted risk reduction(focused on operational adjustments).The technical system incorporates pivotal innovations,including territorial resilient spatial planning for risk mitigation(emphasizing impact alleviation through engineering measures),community-based risk reduction and preparation(integrating risk reduction strategies to minimize exposure and vulnerability),and extraction of crowd behavioral response features during imminent disasters.The national system,on the other hand,establishes institutional architectures that comprise legal and regulatory frameworks for risk governance,as well as cross-domain,cross-hierarchical,and cross-departmental linkage mechanisms for risk mitigation.Additionally,it includes intelligent urban-rural disaster management systems to facilitate adaptive risk governance.Furthermore,this research identifies key scientific challenges,including multi-scale risk transmission mechanisms across hierarchical levels,evolutionary patterns of dynamic vulnerability in hazard-bearing entities,and interest-balancing mechanisms in multi-stakeholder collaborative governance to differentiate risk mitigation(specific hazard dampening)from broader risk reduction(holistic vulnerability diminishment).It also outlines breakthrough pathways,such as complex network modeling of risk cascades,intelligent optimization of collaborative resilience,design of evolutionary game-theoretic mechanisms for synergistic coordination,and disaster mitigation innovations based on community-based approaches.Ultimately,these findings could potentially help inform theoretical and practical approaches for developing a modernized,comprehensive and collaborative disaster risk management system that bridges risk governance with operational risk control and mitigation strategies.
作者
第宝锋
何春阳
刘冬
骆晓龙
庄建琦
Baofeng Di;Chunyang He;Dong Liu;Xiaolong Luo;Jianqi Zhuang(Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction,Sichuan University-The Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Chengdu 610207,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;College of Architecture&Civil Engineering,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710054,China)
出处
《中国科学基金》
北大核心
2025年第6期950-958,共9页
Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFE0121900)
国家自然科学基金项目(42377168)的资助。
关键词
自然灾害
风险治理
风险调控
韧性减灾
多主体协同
natural disaster
risk management
risk mitigation
resilient disaster reduction
multi-participant collaboration
