摘要
为提升高寒地区融雪期径流预报的精准度,文章创新性地引入降水相态变化与积雪动态的耦合机制,构建了可区分融雪产流及融雪-降雨产流模式的相似性径流预报模型。该模型针对性弥补了传统相似性径流预报模型在降水相态识别及混合产流机制模拟方面的不足,并结合滚动预报方法,实现了7日径流的逐日预报。模型在金沙江上游直门达水文站的应用结果表明:相较于不考虑产流模式差异的基础预报模型,分模式预报模型在融雪期1日预见期下的平均绝对相对误差(MARE)降低了0.45%;各洪峰预见期1日的MARE均不超过12.01%,最低为2.55%;在滚动预报中,3日、5日和7日预见期的MARE分别为10.63%、16.77%和23.58%,验证了考虑产流模式分异的相似性径流预报模型在高寒地区融雪径流预报中的可靠性。
In order to improve the accuracy of runoff forecasting during the snowmelt period in cold regions,this study innovatively introduces a coupled mechanism of precipitation phase transition and snowpack dynamics to construct a similarity-based runoff forecasting model capable of distinguishing between snowmelt runoff and combined snowmelt-rainfall runoff modes.The model effectively addresses the limitations of traditional similarity-based models in precipitation phase identification and mixed runoff generation simulation.Combined with a rolling forecasting approach,it enables daily runoff prediction up to seven days in advance.Application of the model at the Zhimenda hydrological station in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River shows that,compared with a baseline model that ignores runoff generation mode differences,the proposed model reduces the mean absolute relative error(MARE)by 0.45%for one-day lead forecasts during the snowmelt period.For all flood peaks with a one-day lead time,MARE values are below 12.01%,with a minimum of 2.55%.In rolling forecasts,the MARE values for 3-day,5-day,and 7-day lead times are 10.63%,16.77%,and 23.58%,respectively,verifying the reliability of the similarity-based runoff forecasting model that accounts for runoff generation mode differentiation in snowmelt runoff prediction for cold regions.
作者
李润林
李百平
马晶洁
LI Runlin;LI Baiping;MA Jingjie(Yunnan Huadian Jinsha River Midstream Hydropower Development Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650228,China;Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《中国水能及电气化》
2025年第12期10-16,共7页
China Water Power & Electrification
关键词
融雪径流
雪水当量
相似性预报
滚动预报
产流机制
snowmelt runoff
snow water equivalent
similarity forecasting
rolling forecasting
runoff generation mechanism
