摘要
以2017—2023年包含197个国家、14个制造业行业的月度面板数据为基础,实证检验考察关税冲击对制造业全球价值链参与的影响效应和影响机制。研究发现,关税冲击会显著降低制造业全球价值链参与,且进口国和出口国之外的第三国制造业全球价值链参与在这一过程中存在转移作用,这一结果在进行安慰剂检验、更换核心指标、考虑政策冲击的滞后效应等稳健性检验后依然成立,在这一过程中地理距离以及行业上游度起到中介作用。异质性分析表明,关税冲击对全球价值链参与的转移作用主要体现在电子产品制造业上,且对欧洲和美洲国家制造业的转移作用相较其他地区更大。
Based on monthly panel data from 197 countries and 14 manufacturing industries from 2017 to 2023,this study empirically examines the impact effect and mechanism of tariff shocks on manufacturing global value chain(GVC)participation.The findings indicate that tariff shocks significantly reduce manufacturing GVC participation.Furthermore,the GVC participation of third countries(other than importing and exporting countries)plays a transfer role in this process.This result remains robust after placebo tests,replacement of core indicators,and consideration of the lagged effects of policy shocks.In this process,geographical distance and industry upstreamness play mediating roles.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the transfer effect of tariff shocks on GVC participation is mainly evident in the electronic products manufacturing industry and is greater for manufacturing in European and American countries compared to other regions.
作者
林竞立
王翔然
林楹
Lin Jing-li;Wang Xiang-ran;Lin Ying
出处
《生产力研究》
2025年第12期7-13,F0003,共8页
Productivity Research
基金
国家自然科学基金“公正评估中美贸易对美国劳动力市场的影响——基于价值链视角的分析”(72173021)。
