摘要
天然气与社会经济各行业之间的关联度紧密,天然气供应短缺通过行业间的相互依赖关系产生级联效应。基于不可操作投入产出理论构建“动-静”耦合的产业关联损失评估模型和“刚性依赖-经济损失-行业韧性”立体化分析体系,实现天然气进口中断对国民经济及各行业的级联影响和动态传播过程分析。研究结果表明,天然气供应中断对各行业的影响呈现明显的分层特征。天然气供应业、燃气供应业、化工行业等为高敏感性行业,具有极高的不可操作性和极低的韧性,属于“刚性脆弱”类型;建筑业、交通运输业等中敏感性行业具备一定的系统调节能力;农林牧渔业、轻工制造业等为低敏感性行业,对天然气依赖度低,展现出强大韧性。基于经济损失规模和行业韧性指标,将各行业重要性分为高损失高韧性行业、高损失低韧性行业、低损失低韧性行业、低损失高韧性行业4个等级并制定相对应的压减消费侧天然气供应的策略。
Natural gas,a critical component of China's energy system,has become increasingly interconnected with multiple sectors and the cascading effects triggered by its supply shortages propagate through cross-sector interdependencies.To accurately evaluate the impacts of natural gas disruptions across industries,the paper constructs a coupled"dynamic-static"industrial linkage loss assessment model based on the inoperability input-output model,along with a three-dimensional analytical framework integrating"rigid dependency-economic loss-industrial resilience"and enables an analysis of the cascading impacts and dynamic propagation processes resulting from natural gas import disruptions on both the national economy and individual sectors.Findings reveal that the effects of natural gas supply disruptions exhibit distinct stratification across industries.Such highsensitivity sectors as natural gas extraction,gas supply,and chemical production display extreme inoperability and low resilience,categorizing them as"rigidly vulnerable".Moderately sensitive sectors including construction and transportation,demonstrate certain systemic adjustment capacities.In contrast,such low-sensitivity sectors as agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,and light manufacturing show minimal dependency on natural gas and strong resilience.Based on economic loss severity and resilience indicators,it classifies industries into such four types as high-loss/high-resilience,high-loss/low-resilience,low-loss/low-resilience,and low-loss/high-resilience sectors and proposes tailored strategies reducing the natural gas supply on the consumption side.
作者
池立勋
王庆生
周淑慧
许驰
王雅菲
张晗
CHI Lixun;WANG Qingsheng;ZHOU Shuhui;XU Chi;WANG Yafei;ZHANG Han(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute;CNPC Production and Operation Management Department)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2025年第11期70-83,共14页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
投入产出模型
动态不可操作性
天然气产业链
供应短缺
经济损失
韧性
input-output model
dynamic inoperability
natural gas industry chain
supply shortages
economic losses
resilience
