摘要
热带气旋活动存在年代际的低频变化。本研究使用滑动T检验的方法,诊断出全球热带气旋变化的年代际突变点,在1999年存在新的年代际突变,体现为达到台风强度的热带气旋个数减少,总维持时间缩短。不同海盆热带气旋的年代际变化差异很大,对全球突变贡献率最大的为太平洋区域,北大西洋则有着独特的变化规律。最后,通过年代间环境因素对比解释了气候导致热带气旋年代际变化的原因。
Tropical cyclones(TC)have low-frequency activities of decadal shift.Sliding T-test method was used to diagnose the inter decadal abrupt changes in global tropical cyclone activity.In 1999,there was a new inter decadal abrupt change,manifested as a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones reaching typhoon intensity and a shortened total duration.The decadal variations of tropical cyclones in different sea basins vary greatly,with the Pacific region contributing the most to global abrupt changes,while the North Atlantic has a unique pattern of change.Finally,the reasons for the decadal changes in tropical cyclones caused by climate were explained by comparing environmental factors over time.
作者
邹逸航
周志花
柳志慧
黄晓璐
张璐
魏春旭
ZOU Yihang;ZHOU Zhihua;LIU Zhihui*;HUANG Xiaolu;ZHANG Lu;WEI Chunxu(Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatory,Huhhot 010051,China;Inner Mongolia Meteorological Science Research Institute,Huhhot 010051,China;Inner Mongolia CREA Real Estate Land Assets Evaluation Co.ltd,Huhhot 010020,China)
出处
《亚热带资源与环境学报》
2025年第4期76-82,共7页
Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment
基金
内蒙古自治区自然科学科学基金资助项目(2025QN04014,2024QN04008)
中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2024-024)。
关键词
热带气旋
滑动T检验
年代际突变
海温变化
tropical cyclones
sliding T-test
interdecadal shift
sea surface temperature variation
