摘要
目的分析2010-2023年贵州省生殖器疱疹流行趋势及其时空分布特征,为精准划分重点防控区域和优化防治策略提供科学依据。方法基于2010-2023年贵州省法定传染病报告系统中生殖器疱疹报告数据,使用R 4.4.2分析其流行情况;使用ArcGIS 10.8软件进行空间自相关分析,结合SaTScan 10.2.5软件开展时空扫描聚类检验。结果2010-2023年贵州省累计报告生殖器疱疹8186例,年平均报告发病率为1.60/10万,报告发病率呈显著上升趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=40.979,P<0.001)。全局空间自相关分析结果显示,除2017-2020年外,其余年份Moran's I指数介于0.1119~0.4803(P均<0.05),报告发病率具有显著的空间正相关性。局部空间自相关分析结果表明,热点区域主要集中在铜仁市碧江区、万山区、松桃县、江口县等以及合肥市,而冷点地区集中在毕节市以及黔南州与黔东南州相接壤的县区。时空扫描探测出6个显著性聚集区域(P均<0.001),其中一类聚集区有1个,出现在铜仁市(27.674499 N,109.149131 E);二类聚集区有5个,分布在贵阳市、合肥市、毕节市、铜仁市、黔西南州、黔东南州和黔南州。结论2010-2023年,贵州省生殖器疱疹报告发病率呈上升趋势,且表现出明显的空间聚集性,铜仁市部分县区及合肥市存在持续的高发区域。建议在热点地区加强哨点监测、高危人群行为干预和健康教育。
Objective To analyze the epidemic trends and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of genital herpes in Guizhou Province from 2010 to 2023 and provide a scientific basis for precisely defining key prevention and control areas and optimizing prevention and control strategies.Methods Based on the genital herpes report data in the Guizhou Provincial Statutory Infectious Disease Reporting System from 2010 to 2023,the prevalence of genital herpes was analyzed using R 4.4.2;ArcGIS 10.8 software was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis,and SaTScan 10.2.5 software was used to conduct a spatiotemporal scanning clustering test.Results In total,8,186 cases of genital herpes were reported in Guizhou Province,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 1.60 per 100,000.The reported incidence rate showed a significant upward trend(χ^(2)_(trend)=40.979,P<0.001).The results of the global spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that,except for the years 2017 to 2020,the Moran's I index ranged from 0.1119 to 0.4803(all P<0.05),suggesting a significant positive spatial correlation in the reported incidence rate.The results of the local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that hotspots were mainly concentrated in Bijiang District,Wanshan District,Songtao County,Jiangkou County of Tongren City,and Zunyi City,while cold spots were mainly in Bijie City and the counties bordering Qiannan Prefecture and Qiandongnan Prefecture.Six significant spatiotemporal clusters were detected(all P<0.001),including one type I cluster in Tongren City(27.674499°N,109.149131°E)and five type II clusters distributed in Guiyang City,Zunyi City,Bijie City,Tongren City,Qianxinan Prefecture,Qiandongnan Prefecture,and Qiannan Prefecture.Conclusions From 2010 to 2023,the reported incidence rate of genital herpes in Guizhou Province showed an upward trend and spatial clustering.Some counties and districts in Tongren City and high-incidence areas in Zunyi City persist.Strengthening sentinel monitoring,behavioral interventions for high-risk populations,and health education in hotspot areas are recommended.
作者
张梽湘
戴斯琦
陶锐
姚永明
陈秀林
钱晓涵
郑敏
ZHANG Zhixiang;DAI Siqi;TAO Rui;YAO Yongming;CHEN Xiulin;QIAN Xiaohan;ZHENG Min(School of Public Health,Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control,Ministry of Education Guizhou Medical University,Guiyang 561l13,Guizhou,China;Guizhou Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guiyang 550004,Guizhou,China)
出处
《中国艾滋病性病》
北大核心
2025年第11期1247-1251,共5页
Chinese Journal of Aids & STD
基金
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC2304901)。
关键词
性传播疾病
生殖器疱疹
流行病学
时空分布特征
sexually transmitted diseases
genital herpes
epidemiology
spatiotemporal distribution characteristics
