摘要
刺激消费、扩大内需是激活中国城市经济活力、推动城市高质量发展的重要路径,践行这一路径的举措之一是扩建城市商业设施,但建设可能带来竞争性挤出,导致过度建设问题。为探讨城市商业设施扩张与城市内需拉动之间的关系,本文首先从商业设施的外部性、空间分布特征与市场竞争关系出发,将“城市消费空间”研究从社会学视角引至经济学视角,通过引入“消费空间”概念,构建“商业设施对城市内需影响”的理论模型,为实证模型提供理论基础。其次,使用赢商网、LandScan、高德地图POI等微观数据对商业设施独占消费空间与重叠消费空间进行测算,检验商业设施建设引起的两类消费空间变化是否对城市消费产生影响,并使用GPS、DML、“商业设施关停冲击”等方法控制可观测和不可观测内生因素带来的估计偏误。研究发现,在设施数量与距离基础上引入消费空间有助于进一步理解商业设施扩张与城市消费之间的关系。在控制了商业设施扩张对中小店铺的“竞争挤出”影响后,实证数据显示3公里内重叠消费空间相对独占消费空间有更强的内需拉动能力。但由于独占与重叠消费空间之间的转化关系,商业设施扩张带来的城市消费空间变化,并不必然同城市消费增长正相关,这构成了城市商业设施过度建设问题的理论根源。为此,地方政府应以内需拉动为目标,按照“高度集中”和“间隔覆盖”原则制定商业设施发展策略与设施扩张边界,以便在“满足居民内需”与“确保商业地产市场有序发展”中寻求政策平衡。
Expanding domestic demand and steering new supply with new demand is a central direction of China’s current economic development.Can the construction of commercial facilities continue to drive domestic demand growth?Although the literature has not directly answered this question,it shows that the expansion of large facilities generates positive externalities through store agglomeration,thereby increasing footfall and conversion rates and affecting housing prices,residential choices,and urban spatial structure.At the same time,facilities may also compete for markets and suppress merchant co-existence,thereby restraining the growth of urban consumption.Building on China’s experience,this paper emphasizes that co-opetition among commercial facilities is the core factor for understanding the relationship between facilities and urban consumption.Starting from the externalities,spatial distribution,and market competition of facilities,we introduce the concept of consumption space to characterize the“facilities-consumption spaces-urban consumption”nexus that arises from the interaction between resident choices and facility siting.We then combine Winshang facility data,Amap Points of Interest(POIs),and LandScan population data to measure consumption-space ranges and population exposure for 276 cities from 2009 to 2019,distinguishing exclusive consumption spaces and overlapping consumption spaces.Finally,within a reduced-form framework,we quantify how the expansion of these two types of consumption spaces affects urban consumption.The results show a significant stimulus within 1-3 km consumption spaces but a suppressing effect within 3-5 km spaces;further analysis indicates that the suppression is driven by competitive crowd-out of other stores.The construction of commercial facilities and urban consumption are endogenously linked.Accordingly,this paper first develops a theoretical framework that models the two-way interaction between the investment decisions of facility developers and the choices of urban residents,and derives a reduced-form estimating equation from a system of structural equations.Second,to address potential government policy interventions,we construct variables capturing leader characteristics and intervention propensities and employ a generalized propensity score approach to control for policy endogeneity.Third,recognizing possible nonlinear relationships between the expansion of consumption space and city characteristics that could induce omitted-variable bias,we adopt a double machine learning(DML)strategy to purge such confounding.At the same time,unobserved factors,such as the formats and diversity of commercial facilities,the city’s cultural milieu,and its historical commercial traditions may also affect the estimates;therefore,we incorporate city-by-time interactions into the model and handle high-dimensional controls using Lasso estimation.Finally,given that the shutdowns and bankruptcies of individual commercial facilities are weakly related to broader urban conditions,we further estimate the counterfactual impact of facility closures on a city’s consumption space to assess the robustness of the main findings.The paper’s main contribution is to identify,from a consumption space perspective,the mechanisms by which facility construction affects urban consumption.We use exclusive consumption spaces(rings)to capture the positive externalities of expansion and overlapping consumption spaces(rings)to capture the co-opetitive effects among facilities on consumption.Based on a spatial general equilibrium framework,we clarify how facility construction drives the evolution of consumption spaces and thereby alters urban consumption.At the policy level,the study provides an economic basis for assessing current facility development and standardizing spatial layouts.We recommend that local governments adhere to a“liberalized-yet-disciplined”institutional orientation and follow a principle of broad coverage with targeted clustering,so as to reduce inefficient overlaps and wasteful competition.
作者
张齐圣
王雅琳
ZHANG Qisheng;WANG Yalin(School of Economics,Xiamen University;Paula and Gregory Chow Institute for studies in Economics,Xiamen University)
出处
《经济研究》
北大核心
2025年第9期68-88,共21页
Economic Research Journal
关键词
商业设施
城市消费
消费空间
重叠消费空间
独占消费空间
Commercial Facilities
Urban Consumption
Consumption Spaces
Overlapping Consumption Spaces
Exclusive Consumption Spaces
