摘要
随着“一带一路”的推动与建设,近些年中国对非洲投资持续增多,贸易规模不断提升。然而,非洲武装冲突事件频发,其已成为威胁中国在非海外利益安全的主要风险,因而亟待加以防范与应对。文章基于武装冲突地点与事件数据库(ACLED),采用核密度分析、热点分析法和多距离空间聚类分析等方法,探究了1997—2024年间非洲武装冲突事件的时空演变趋势及其对中国海外利益的影响。研究发现:1)现阶段,非洲武装冲突主要集中于苏丹、肯尼亚、索马里、尼日利亚、布基纳法索以及刚果(金)东部、摩洛哥、突尼斯等地区,构成多点并发的格局。2)1997—2024年,中国对非洲直接投资存量的空间布局呈现从“多点分散”向“相对集聚”转变趋势。3)非洲地区涉中国武装冲突事件在非洲武装冲突形势严峻的地区之上进一步集聚,且波及范围有所扩大。在刚果(金)、肯尼亚、布隆迪、索马里和乌干达等热点投资国,频发的武装冲突已对中国海外利益构成严重威胁。尽管中国在尼日利亚、苏丹、中非共和国和埃塞俄比亚等冲突活跃国家的投资规模有限,但由于当地冲突形势严峻,相关投资项目面临突出的安全风险。长期来看,若非洲地区武装冲突无法得到有效控制,将动摇中国投资信心,导致海外布局收缩、投资项目延缓等,进而阻碍“一带一路”的高质量发展与建设。
With the advancement of the"Belt and Road"initiative,China's investment in Africa has increased steadily in recent years,and trade volume has expanded continuously.However,due to the frequent occurrence of armed conflicts in Africa,the security of China's overseas interests in the region has become an increasingly prominent issue.Based on the Armed Conflict Location&Event Data Project(ACLED),this paper employs research methods such as kernel density analysis,hotspot analysis,and multi-distance spatial clustering analysis to explore the spatiotemporal evolution trends of armed conflict events in Africa from 1997 to 2024,as well as their risk impact on China's overseas interests.The analysis reveals several important results:1)At present,armed conflicts in Africa are mainly concentrated in regions such as Sudan,Kenya,Somalia,Nigeria,Burkina Faso,the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo(DRC),Morocco,and Tunisia,forming a pattern of multiple points of occurrence.In terms of organizational structure,the main driving forces behind these armed conflicts are armed opposition groups,terrorist organizations,and militia groups.Underlying factors such as ethnic differences,religious divisions,conflicts between farmers and herders,and competition for resources are the fundamental causes of these conflicts.2)From 1997 to 2024,the spatial distribution of China's direct investment stock in Africa shows a transition from a"multi-point dispersed"pattern to a"relatively concentrated"one.Southern Africa,being distant from the core areas of conflict,is the most stable region for China's investment in Africa.In contrast,the escalating conflict situations in East,West,Central,and North Africa have gradually worsened the investment environment,leading to the continuous expansion of China's investment cold spots and revealing a clear tendency to avoid conflict-affected areas.3)Before 2011,armed conflict events in Africa involving China were relatively rare.However,since 2011,the number of such incidents has increased significantly.From a spatial perspective,the clustering of armed conflicts involving China has gradually intensified,with these clusters emerging in regions that were already severely affected by armed conflicts.In hotspot investment countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo(DRC),Kenya,Burundi,Somalia,and Uganda,armed conflicts have become a significant threat to China's overseas interests.Although China's investment scale in conflict-stricken areas such as Nigeria,Sudan,the Central African Republic,and Ethiopia is limited,the severe conflict situation in these regions still poses significant security risks.In the long term,if conflicts in Africa are not controlled effectively,China's investment confidence will be undermined,leading to a reduction in overseas expansion,delays in projects,and hindrance of the high-quality advancement of the"Belt and Road"strategy.This paper systematically analyzes the impact of armed conflicts on China's investment in Africa,revealing the change trend of investment layout from high-risk areas to more stable and secure regions,thus filling a gap in research on the relationship between investment security and conflicts.Furthermore,by delving into the risk characteristics of conflict events involving China's interests,this study not only provides an in-depth analysis of these risks but also proposes targeted policy recommendations,offering both theoretical support and practical guidance for mitigating the adverse effects of armed conflicts on China's overseas interests.These findings provide new perspectives for future research and offer practical references for China's investment decision-making and risk management in Africa.
作者
皮帅帅
巴锐
杨璇
Pi Shuaishuai;Ba Rui;Yang Xuan(School of National Security,People's Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《热带地理》
北大核心
2025年第12期2224-2237,共14页
Tropical Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72574228)
中国人民公安大学基本科研业务费项目(2023JKF01ZK06)。
关键词
武装冲突
中国海外利益
对非投资
安全风险
非洲
armed conflict
China's overseas interests
investment in africa
security risks
Africa
