摘要
为有效探究高寒干旱区城市长周期水资源供需平衡态势及节水潜力,支撑流域可持续发展与水生态质量保护,为高寒干旱区水资源系统适配性管理提供决策范式,通过Holt线性趋势法、GM(1,1)灰色预测模型及定额法,构建了多时间尺度需水预测体系,对2027年、2035年、2050年规划水平年的需水量进行预测,并基于社会经济指标与用水定额开展多情景供需平衡及节水潜力评估。结果表明:(1)在预测期内,格尔木市需水量显著增加,至2050年,3种方法预测的需水量分别为5.29亿m^(3)、5.45亿m^(3)、6.58亿m^(3)。(2)社会经济的快速增长与需水总量呈正相关关系,工业需水激增是水资源压力的主要因素,预测2035年和2050年将面临3.9%和17.7%的缺水问题。(3)通过节水潜力的有效释放,预计2035年水资源的供需矛盾将显著缓解,但2050年仍将面临6.6%的结构性缺水问题。
To effectively investigate the long-term supply-demand balance of water resources and water-saving potential in alpine arid urban areas,and to support sustainable basin development and water ecological quality protection,and to provided a decision-making paradigm for adaptive management of water resource systems in alpine arid regions.A multi-temporal scale water demand forecasting system was established using the Holt’s linear trend method,the GM(1,1)grey prediction model,and the quota method.Water demand for the planning level years 2027,2035 and 2050 was predicted,and multi-scenario supply-demand balance and water-saving potential were evaluated based on socio-economic indicators and water use quotas.The results indicated the followings:(1)During the forecast period,water demand in Golmud City increased significantly,with predicted demand for 2050 being 529 million m^(3),545 million m^(3) and 658 million m^(3) according to the three methods,respectively.(2)Rapid socio-economic growth was positively correlated with total water demand,and the sharp increase in industrial water use was the main factor contributing to water resource stress.Water shortage of 3.9%and 17.7%was predicted for 2035 and 2050,respectively.(3)Through effectively realizing water-saving potential,the supply-demand imbalance was expected to be significantly alleviated by 2035,yet a structural water deficit of 6.6%was still predicted for 2050.
作者
李梓睿
郑国强
郭兰春
范春霞
李梦瑶
李润杰
LI Zirui;ZHENG Guoqiang;GUO Lanchun;FAN Chunxia;LI Mengyao;LI Runjie(School of Civil Engineering and Water Resources,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China;Qinghai Engineering Consulting Center Co.,Ltd.,Xining 810001,China;State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China)
出处
《青海大学学报》
2025年第6期95-103,共9页
Journal of Qinghai University
基金
青海省科学技术厅项目(2024-SF-148)。
关键词
定额法
水资源
需水预测
节水潜力
quota method
water resources
water demand forecasting
water-saving potential
