摘要
钢铁工业是国民经济的重要基础产业,是实现绿色低碳发展的重要领域.通过建立城市尺度钢铁行业能源-污染物排放-碳排放集成评估模型(iPCEM-city),以安阳钢铁行业为例,设置不同情景进行污染物与碳排放效应模拟和空气质量改善效益评估,从结构调整、产能管控、技术推广与政策激励这4个维度提出了安阳钢铁行业未来的发展路径建议.结果显示:(1)各情景措施综合减排效益大小排序为:产业整合>协同导向>脱碳导向>减污导向>基准情景;(2)综合路径下,2025年、2030年和2035年,粗钢产量分别在2020年的基础上下降26%、32%和42%,煤炭消费分别下降34%、51%和68%,碳排放量分别下降27%、39%和54%,SO_(2)、NO_(x)和颗粒物排放量均显著下降;(3)产业整合情景下空气质量改善效益最明显,PM_(2.5)质量浓度2025年和2035年分别下降至53μg·m^(-3)和49μg·m^(-3);(4)各情景中长流程的碳减排成本总体大于短流程的减排成本,随着超低排放覆盖产能比例上升,各情景超低排放总减排成本逐步下降.研究旨在为安阳钢铁行业在微观层面开展减污降碳策略提供科学依据,也为钢铁行业宏观路径战略在城市微观尺度的适配与应用提供案例,可作为“煤为主、产业重、转型慢、改善难”的同类型城市钢铁行业减污、降碳和控煤的重要参考.
The steel industry plays a critical role in advancing green and low-carbon development.This study introduces the Integrated Assessment Model for Energy,Pollutant Emissions,and Carbon Emissions at the city level(iPCEM-city),with a case study focusing on the steel industry in Anyang.By simulating different scenarios to evaluate pollution and carbon emission effects,as well as air quality improvement benefits,this study proposes future development pathways for the steel industry in Anyang from four perspectives:industrial structure adjustment,production capacity control,technology promotion,and policy incentives.Key findings include:①The ranking of integrated mitigation benefits across scenarios was:industrial integration>synergy orientation>decarbonization orientation>pollution reduction orientation>baseline scenario.②Under the comprehensive pathway,by 2025,2030,and 2035,crude steel output was projected to decrease by 26%,32%,and 42%,respectively,compared to 2020 levels;coal consumption was projected to decline by 34%,51%,and 68%;and carbon emissions would reduce by 27%,39%,and 54%.Notably,emissions of SO_(2),NO_(x),and PM would also see significant reductions.③The industrial integration scenario demonstrated the most pronounced benefits for air quality improvement,with PM_(2.5) mass concentrations forecasted to drop to 53μg·m^(-3) in 2025 and 49μg·m^(-3) in 2035.④In all scenarios,the overall carbon emission reduction costs for BF-BOF were generally higher than those for EAF.As the proportion of production capacity covered by ultra-low emissions increased,the total emission reduction costs for ultra-low emissions gradually decreased across all scenarios.This research provides a scientific basis for formulating detailed strategies for pollution and carbon emission reduction at the micro-scale for steel industries in cities like Anyang that are characterized by coal dependency,heavy industry,slow transition,and difficulty in air-quality improvement.It also serves as a case reference for the adaptation and application of macro-pathway strategies for the steel industry at the city micro-scale.
作者
李勃
赵大地
张伟
王艳艳
王建童
支现方
蒋洪强
缪祥卓
LI Bo;ZHAO Da-di;ZHANG Wei;WANG Yan-yan;WANG Jian-tong;ZHI Xian-fang;JIANG Hong-qiang;MIAO Xiang-zhuo(State Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation,Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Beijing 100014,China;Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Regional Ecological and Environmental Center,Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Beijing 100014,China;Anyang Energy Development Promotion Center,Anyang 455000,China;Kunming Branch of Tianjin Municipal Engineering Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650500,China)
出处
《环境科学》
北大核心
2025年第12期7524-7539,共16页
Environmental Science
基金
国家重点研发计划地球系统与全球变化专项(2022YFF0802500)
京津冀环境综合治理国家科技重大专项(2024ZD1200504)
国家自然科学基金重点项目(7214100059)
自然资源保护协会项目(2023I028)。
关键词
城市尺度
钢铁行业
减污降碳
效应评估
情景模拟
city-level
steel industry
pollution reduction and carbon mitigation
effects assessment
scenario simulation
