摘要
本文基于2010—2022年中国282个地级市面板数据,采用双重机器学习模型实证检验新质生产力对绿色全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,新质生产力显著促进城市绿色全要素生产率的提升,且在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明,新质生产力通过绿色技术创新和人才集聚效应促进城市绿色全要素生产率的提升。异质性分析发现,新质生产力对绿色全要素生产率的影响存在基于区位、城市群以及环境规制水平的异质性特征。基于此,本文提出实施差异化区域发展策略,优化新质生产力空间布局;强化城市群协同发展,促进要素自由流动;构建绿色技术创新体系,增强新质生产力核心驱动力;完善人才聚集机制,培育绿色领域高端人才队伍等具有针对性的对策建议,以期为我国新质生产力发展与区域绿色全要素生产率提升提供借鉴参考。
Based on panel data from 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2022,this study employs a double machine learning model to empirically examine the impact of new quality productive forces on green total factor productivity.The study finds that,new quality productive forces significantly promote urban green total factor productivity,and this conclusion holds after a series of robustness tests.Mechanism analysis reveals that new quality productive forces enhance urban green total factor productivity through green technology innovation and talent agglomeration effects.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the impact of new quality productive forces on green total factor energy efficiency exhibits heterogeneity based on location,urban agglomerations,and the level of environmental regulation.Based on these findings,this paper proposes targeted policy recommendations,including implementing differentiated regional development strategies to optimize the spatial distribution of new quality productive forces;strengthening coordinated development of city clusters to facilitate the free flow of factors;constructing a green technology innovation system to reinforce the core driving force of new quality productive forces;and improving talent agglomeration mechanisms to cultivate high-end talent in green fields.The study aims to provide insights for the development of new quality productive forces and the enhancement of regional green total factor productivity in China.
作者
孔德源
赵静
黄奕
KONG Deyuan;ZHAO Jing;HUANG Yi(Hope College,Southwest Jiaotong University;National Bureau of Statistics of China Sichuan General Bureau of Surveys)
出处
《金融经济》
2025年第10期22-33,共12页
Finance Economy
基金
四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地四川灾害经济研究中心自筹项目“基于双重机器学习模型的四川省新质生产力与绿色经济发展影响机制研究”(ZHJJ2024ZC001)
四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地沱江流域高质量发展研究中心一般项目“数字经济赋能沱江流域低碳转型的路径研究”(TJGZL2025-11)
四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地四川革命老区发展研究中心自筹项目“新质生产力与四川革命老区高质量发展研究”(SLQ2025-06)。
关键词
新质生产力
绿色全要素生产率
双重机器学习
New quality productive forces
Green total factor productivity
Double machine learning
