摘要
随着工业化和城市化的快速发展,长江流域水生生态系统及珍稀濒危物种受到的威胁日益加剧,亟须开展生态风险评估。针对珍稀濒危物种毒性数据匮乏的问题,本研究以长江流域特有小型鲤科鱼类稀有鮈鲫为例,建立了污染物对斑马鱼和稀有鮈鲫的生物毒性比对数据库,在此基础上构建了稀有鮈鲫-斑马鱼的急、慢性毒性种间关系预测(ICE)模型(R^(2)_(Acute)=0.78,RMSE_(Acute)=0.38,P<0.01;R^(2)_(Chronic)=0.65,RMSE_(Chronic)=0.79,P<0.01),并利用R统计软件开发了线上毒性预测交互系统。基于ICE模型的预测结果,进一步开展了稀有鮈鲫栖息地的全氟类污染物生态风险评估,结果表明,全氟类污染物的风险商值均低于安全阈值(RQ<1),即当前的生态风险较低。研究结果不仅为稀有鮈鲫等珍稀濒危物种的毒性预测和风险评估提供了方法,也为水生生态系统的保护与管理提供了科学依据。
Rapid industrialization and urbanization pose growing threats to aquatic ecosystems and their rare and endangered species in the Yangtze River Basin,underscoring an urgent need for ecological risk assessment.However,the lack of toxicity data for rare species remains a major challenge.In this study,we selected Gobiocypris rarus,a small cyprinid fish endemic to the Yangtze River Basin,as the model species.A database comparing the toxicity of zebrafish(Danio rerio)and G.rarus was established.Based on this,interspecies correlation estimation(ICE)models were developed to predict acute and chronic toxicity(R^(2)_(Acute)=0.78,RMSE_(Acute)=0.38,P<0.01;R^(2)_(Chronic)=0.65,RMSE_(Chronic)=0.79,P<0.01).We have also implemented an online interactive platform for toxicity prediction using R statistical software.By leveraging ICE predictions,we assessed the ecological risks of per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances(PFAS)in G.rarus habitats.The results showed that all risk quotient(RQ)values were below the safety threshold(RQ<1),indicating that the current ecological risk is within a manageable range.This work provides a novel framework for toxicity prediction and risk assessment in rare and endangered species,while providing s cientific evidence to support the conservation and management of aquatic ecosystems in the Yangtze River Basin.
作者
王昕
任波
冯承莲
范文宏
李晓敏
王颖
WANG Xin;REN Bo;FENG Chenglian;FAN Wenhong;LI Xiaomin;WANG Ying(School of Materials Science and Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Publishing House of Electronics Industry,Beijing 100036,China;State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,B eijing 100012,China)
出处
《生态毒理学报》
北大核心
2025年第6期85-97,共13页
Asian Journal of Ecotoxicology
基金
国家重点研发计划青年科学家项目(2022YFC3204800)。
关键词
稀有鮈鲫
生态风险评估
种间关系预测(ICE)
斑马鱼
生物毒性
线上毒性预测交互系统
Gobiocypris rarus
ecological risk assessment
interspecies correlation estimation(ICE)
zebrafish
b iotoxicity
online interactive toxicity prediction system
