摘要
Local strong seismic activity shows the potential to closely follow a renewal process,which is inconsistent with the overall seismic activity that aligns with the Poisson process.Given that existing methods for synthesizing stochastic seismic event sets cannot control local seismic activity,a method based on Monte Carlo simulations has been developed for synthesizing random seismic event sets where local strong earthquakes satisfy the renewal process.This method can synthesize seismic activities in a statistical area where the overall activity conforms to the Poisson process and the major seismic activities in local potential sources or faults follow the renewal process.This paper presents long-and short-scale approaches.The long-scale earthquake catalogs are suitable for reflecting the sequential characteristics of seismic activities.Meanwhile,the short-scale catalogs focus on the impacts of specific earthquake events within a group for a detailed understanding of hazards under certain conditions,making them suitable for studies on specific earthquake sequences and geological areas or situations requiring high temporal resolution.In the applications of shortscale sequences,we find that the equivalent occurrence rate method may overestimate the seismic hazard.This synthesis method for earthquake catalogs can simulate realistic seismic activities,thereby enhancing the accuracy of hazard analysis results and is suitable for seismic hazard analysis and earthquake insurance rate setting.
当前采用Monte Carlo方法生成的地震随机事件集基于地震活动泊松分布模型,在局部断裂尺度范围内地震活动仍然表现出强的泊松分布特点与大型断裂相关的地震活动具有的弹性回跳特征不符合。本文提出由断裂相关的局部地震活动生成大区域地震序列的随机地震事件集生成技术,实现了局部的更新过程模型与大区域地震活动泊松模型的协调。从而能够反映出大型断裂相关的弹性回跳特征,也克服泊松模型时间不相关导致局部地震活动大震短期内丛集,不符合物理原理的现象。更加有利于模拟断裂活动的真实现象。该方法可用于断裂地震相关的危险性分析。
基金
funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3003502)。
