摘要
[目的]探究北部湾经济区水源涵养功能的时空演变规律及其驱动机制,为陆海统筹视角下的生态安全格局优化提供科学依据。[方法]集成InVEST-PLUS模型,构建“土地利用演变-水源涵养响应-驱动机制解”综合分析框架,结合最优参数地理探测器与空间自相关分析方法,定量评估2000-2030年水源涵养功能的时空分异特征及驱动机制。[结果] 2000-2020年,水源涵养量平均值下降12.4%,空间分布呈“山地高-沿海低”的阶梯格局,空间集聚性持续增强。自然因子(q>0.5)主导分异,交通网络扩张加剧功能破碎化。2030年情景预测表明,生态保护情景下水源涵养总量(1 570.79×10^(7) m^(3))较自然发展情景提升0.8%,但建设用地扩张的不可逆性仍制约功能恢复。[结论]北部湾水源涵养功能退化由自然本底约束与人类活动胁迫耦合驱动,需通过差异化生态修复策略,如优先保护山地林区、创新“碳汇-水源”协同交易机制实现可持续发展。研究结果为滨海经济区生态管理提供多情景模拟与空间决策支持方法。
[Objective]This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of water conservation function and its driving mechanisms in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,providing a scientific basis for optimizing ecological security patterns from the perspective of land-sea coordination.[Methods]By integrating the InVEST-PLUS model,a comprehensive analytical framework of"land use evolution-water conservation response-driving mechanism interpretation"was established.This was combined with the optimal parameter-based geodetector and spatial autocorrelation analysis to quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of water conservation function from 2000 to 2030.[Results]From 2000 to 2020,the average water conservation volume decreased by 12.4%,exhibiting a stepped spatial pattern of"high in mountainous areas and low in coastal areas",with progressively intensified spatial clustering.Natural factors(q>0.5)dominated the heterogeneity,while expansion of transportation networks intensified functional fragmentation.The scenario predictions for 2030 showed that the total water conservation volume(1570.79×107 m^(3))under the ecological protection scenario would increase by 0.8% compared to the natural development scenario.However,the irreversible expansion of construction land continued to constrain functional recovery.[Conclusion]The degradation of water conservation function in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is jointly driven by the coupled effects of natural background constraints and human activities.Achieving sustainable development requires differentiated ecological restoration strategies,such as prioritizing the protection of mountainous forests and innovating the"carbon sink-water conservation"synergistic trading mechanism.The findings provide multiscenario simulation and spatial decision-making support methods for ecological management in coastal economic zones.
作者
杨明霄
卢远
汤传勇
梁丽琪
YANG Mingxiao;LU Yuan;TANG Chuanyong;LIANG Liqi(School of Geography Science and Planning,Nanning Normal University,Nanning 530001,China;Key Laboratory of Beibu Gulf,Environmental Change and Resource Utilization of Ministry of Education,Nanning 530001,China)
出处
《水土保持学报》
北大核心
2025年第6期431-443,454,共14页
Journal of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
广西南方生态屏障遥感监测体系建设与应用项目(84-Y50-G29-9001-22/23)
国家自然科学基金项目(41661043)。
