摘要
改革开放以来,创业者群体规模不断扩大,但学界对其社会心态知之甚少;结合中国少子化的人口格局,研究关注创业者的生育意愿。不同于以往运用“成本-效用”分析框架,研究结合中国的家庭主义生育观,分析未来信心这一关涉子代发展的要素对创业者生育意愿形成的影响。通过对2017年中国综合社会调查数据的分析发现:相比非创业者,创业者具有更强的未来信心,进而形成了更高的生育意愿,且这种生育意愿具有明显的男性偏好。相比于以收入为核心的成本-效用权衡,以信心为代表的个体对子代未来发展的考虑对生育意愿及其性别偏好的塑造作用更明显,且信心的来源会影响个体生育意愿的性别偏好。研究刻画了创业者在进行生育决策时“向前看”的特质;在未来生育政策制定的过程中,应着重提振个体对未来的信心。
Since the Reform and Opening Up,the number of entrepreneurs has been increasing,yet academic understanding of their social mentality remains limited.Given the context of China′s declining fertility rate,this study focuses on the fertility intentions of entrepreneurs.Departing from the“cost-benefit”analytical framework employed in existing research,this paper explores how future confidence—a factor focusing on the development of offspring—shapes entrepreneurial fertility intentions under the familistic fertility values prevalent in Chinese society.Using data from the 2017 Chinese General Social Survey,the analysis reveals that entrepreneurs exhibit stronger confidence in the future compared to non-entrepreneurs,which translates into higher fertility intentions.Notably,these fertility intentions demonstrate a marked male preference.Compared to the cost-benefit considerations centered on income,future confidence,a factor denoting the development of offspring,plays a more significant role in shaping both fertility intention and its gender preference.The source of confidence is also highly connected with the gender preference of fertility intention.This study highlights a future-oriented feature of entrepreneurs′fertility decision-making.Policymakers should prioritize fostering individual confidence in the future when designing fertility policies.
作者
何晓斌
赵青矣
HE Xiaobin;ZHAO Qingyi(School of Social Sciences,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《人口与发展》
北大核心
2025年第6期100-109,共10页
Population and Development
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代促进劳动力返乡创业的高质量发展研究”(22&ZD191)
北京市社会科学基金重点项目“促进北京灵活就业的社会政策研究”(24SRA003)
清华大学自主科研计划文科专项项目“高质量发展理念下的零工经济劳动者权益问题研究”(2024THZWYY08)。
关键词
创业者
生育意愿
未来信心
男性偏好
Entrepreneur
Fertility Intention
Future Confidence
Male Preference
