摘要
目的分析2014—2023年天津市红桥区水痘疫情的流行趋势、季节特征、职业分布及疫苗接种的影响,为制定科学防控策略提供依据。方法水痘报告病例数据和人口学资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告管理系统,水痘疫苗接种信息来源于天津市免疫规划信息管理系统,文中所统计病例包括临床诊断病例和确诊病例,删除重复病例。采用描述性流行病学方法分析水痘病例数据,用平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC)评估发病率变化趋势,通过Pearson相关性分析探讨疫苗接种与发病率的关系。结果2014—2023年红桥区共报告水痘病例2363例,无死亡病例,年均发病率为42.42/10万,2019年达到发病率高峰,为60.25/10万,2020年发病率最低,为23.23/10万,不同年度发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=22.692,P=0.007),发病率整体趋势变化无统计学意义(AAPC=-1.4%,t=-0.5,P=0.6),但14岁及以下人群2018年后发病率显著下降(AAPC=-22.77%,t=-4.43,P=0.01)。水痘发病率在各年龄组之间差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=5999.62,P<0.01),其中,5~、10~岁2个年龄组发病率最高。男性水痘发病率为41.91/10万,女性发病率为42.94/10万,不同性别之间发病率差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=0.304,P=0.581)。水痘发病呈“双峰”分布,高峰为4—5月和10月至次年1月。职业分布以学生为主(41.20%),水痘发病率的职业分布差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=46.21,P<0.01),散居儿童和幼托儿童的病例比例均呈下降趋势。14岁及以下人群发病率与疫苗接种率呈明显的负相关(r=-0.908,P<0.01)。结论水痘疫苗对14岁及以下人群的保护效果显著,需加强成年人群的免疫接种和健康教育。建议在高发季节前强化学校传染病防控措施。
Objective To understand the epidemiological trends,seasonal characteristics,population distribution and the impact of vaccination on varicella outbreaks in Hongqiao District,Tianjin City during 2014-2023,and to provide scientific data for formulating scientific prevention and control strategies.Methods The varicella case data and demographic information were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System(NNDRS)of the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.Vaccination records were sourced from the Tianjin Immunization Program Information Management System.The study included both clinically diagnosed and laboratory-confirmed cases,with duplicate entries removed.Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze varicella case data.A Joinpoint regression model was employed to assess the trends in incidence rates,and correlation analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between vaccination and incidence.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 2363 varicella cases were reported in Hongqiao District,with no reported deaths.The average annual incidence rate was 42.42 per 100000.The incidence peaked in 2019 at 60.25 per 100000,while the lowest incidence occurred in 2020 at 23.23 per 100000,and the differences in annual incidence rates were statistically significant(P<0.01).Overall,there was no significant trend was seen,however,the incidence among individuals aged under 14 significantly declined after 2018(P<0.05).The differences in varicella incidence across age groups were statistically significant(P<0.01),with the highest incidence observed in the 5-and 10-age groups.The incidence rate was 41.91 per 100000 in males and 42.94 per 100000 in females,without significant difference(P>0.05).Varicella cases exhibited a"bimodal"distribution,with peaks occurring from April to May and from October to January of the following year.Students constituted the majority of cases(41.20%),and occupational distribution differences in incidence were statistically significant(P<0.01).The proportions of cases among scattered children and childcare attendees showed declining trends.A strong negative correlation was observed between vaccination rates and incidence in the population aged under 14(r=-0.908,P<0.01).Conclusion Varicella vaccination demonstrates significant protective effects for individuals aged under 14.Immunization and health education among adult populations are needed to strengthen.It is recommended to enhance infectious disease prevention and control measures in schools before peak seasons.
作者
马圣兰
MA Shenglan(Emergency Response Office,Hongqiao District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianjin 300131,China)
出处
《环境与健康杂志》
2025年第11期1012-1015,1022,共5页
Journal of Environment and Health
关键词
水痘
流行病学特征
疫苗接种
Varicella
Epidemiological characteristics
Vaccination
