摘要
【目的/意义】Web3.0时代,突发公共事件网络舆情深度嵌入社会风险治理场域。准确评估突发公共事件网络舆情风险,是有效预警和应对风险挑战的前提和基础。【方法/过程】本研究基于引爆点理论,构建“附着力—个别人物—环境威力”三维耦合框架下的多模态舆情风险评估体系,采用熵权TOPSIS法对舆情风险指标量化评估,结合K均值聚类算法实现风险等级的客观分级,以识别低、中、高风险舆情事件。【结果/结论】研究发现,突发公共事件网络舆情的风险等级受事件内容指向、意见领袖传播力、算法助推、政府治理力度及境外干预程度等多重因素影响,其中参与者维度、环境维度是舆情风险演化的关键驱动因素。研究针对高风险型舆情提出“1体系+2机制+N”综合治理框架,为应对Web3.0时代突发公共事件网络舆情提供了兼具理论解释力与实践操作性的解决方案。【创新/局限】创造性引入“境外参与度”指标,形成了涵盖境内境外双循环风险因素的评估体系。但样本数据库较为单一,未来应考虑扩充案例库以增强其丰富性和完整性。
[Purpose/significance]In the era of Web3.0,the network public opinion of public emergencies is deeply embedded in the field of social risk governance.Accurately assessing the risk of public opinion on the Internet of public emergencies is the premise and basis for effective early warning and response to risk challenges.[Method/process]Based on the tipping point theory,this study constructs a multimodal public opinion risk assessment system under the three-dimensional coupling framework of"adhesion-individual characters-Environmental Power".The entropy weight TOPSIS method is used to quantify the public opinion risk indicators,and the K-means clustering algorithm is combined to achieve the objective classification of risk levels,so as to identify low,medium and highrisk public opinion events.[Result/conclusion]The study found that the risk level of online public opinion of public emergencies was affected by multiple factors,such as event content orientation,opinion leaders'communication power,algorithm boost,government governance and the degree of overseas intervention,among which the participant dimension and environment dimension were the key drivers of public opinion risk evolution.The research proposes a comprehensive governance framework of"1 system+2 mechanism+n"for high-risk public opinion,which provides a solution with both theoretical explanatory power and practical operability for dealing with network public opinion of public emergencies in the Web3.0 era.[Innovation/limitation]The creative introduction of"overseas participation"index has formed an evaluation system covering domestic and overseas double cycle risk factors.However,the sample database is relatively single,so we should consider expanding the case database in the future to enhance its richness and integrity.
作者
韩旭
丁杰
周卡特
HAN Xu;DING Jie;ZHOU Kate(School of National Security,People's Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China;Shaoxing Public Security Bureau,Shaoxing 312000,China)
出处
《情报科学》
北大核心
2025年第8期29-40,共12页
Information Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目一般项目“国家安全视域下计算宣传的信息操纵及风险治理机制研究”(21BXW066)。
关键词
突发公共事件
网络舆情
风险评估
多模态分析
熵权法
TOPSIS法
public emergency incidents
online public opinion
risk assessment
multimodal analysis
entropy weight method
TOPSIS
