摘要
目前对风电等可再生能源的研究主要集中在大规模部署带来的成本下降、间歇性资源的上网,以及相关支持政策的设计等方面。实际开发中,与石油等非可再生资源类似,风电等可再生资源受制于可用于开发的地理区位限制,装机总量同样存在上限。本文基于可耗竭资源的最优开发理论,将一个地域范围内的风能资源开发潜力(可装机总量)视为可耗竭的,综合考虑风能资源开发潜力、风电标杆上网电价、投资成本、并网消纳成本、风机的耗损和退役等因素,以开发风电所能获得的长期总净收益最大化为目标,建立了动态最优化模型。在模型分析求解部分,利用哈密尔顿函数和庞得里亚金极大值原理进行求解,从理论上得到最优的新增装机容量变动路径。同时,使用Picard存在性和唯一性定理及解的延拓性定理,证明了满足特殊条件时唯一最优解的存在性,并给出了一般情况下近似最优解的搜索算法。最后,本文以甘肃酒泉风电基地为算例,比较了原定开发目标与模型计算结果。
Research on renewable energy,including wind power,is currently centered on the reduction of costs associated with large-scale deployment,the integration of intermittent resources into the power grid,and the formulation of supportive policy frameworks.In the realm of practical development,wind power,akin to nonrenewable resources such as oil,is constrained by geographical limitations for exploitable locations,implying that there is an upper limit to the total potential installed capacity.The optimal control theory of exhaustible resources is applied to the context of wind energy,considering the regional wind energy reserves(remained capacity potential)as exhaustible resources.The model in this paper takes into account a multitude of factors,including the reserves of wind energy,the benchmark on-grid electricity prices for wind power,investment costs,construction and grid consumption costs,as well as the depreciation and eventual retirement of wind turbines.The primary aim of this study is the maximization of the long-term net benefits from wind power development.Consequently,a dynamic optimization model has been constructed to achieve this goal.In the analysis and resolution of the model,the Hamiltonian function and Pontryagin's Maximum Principle are utilized to find the optimal development path for the incremental installed capacity.Furthermore,under specific conditions,the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution are established using Picard's existence and uniqueness theorem,as well as the theorem on the extensibility of solutions.An algorithm for finding an approximate optimal solution under general conditions is also presented.A case study analysis of the Jiuquan Wind Power Base in Gansu Province is also provided,assessing the congruence between the projected development outcomes and the model's predictions.
作者
朱磊
崔耀锋
王佳蕊
吴佳豪
Zhu Lei;Cui Yaofeng;Wang Jiarui;Wu Jiahao(School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)
出处
《中国管理科学》
北大核心
2025年第11期336-344,共9页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72342002,72122002)。
关键词
可再生资源
风能
动态优化模型
最优控制理论
酒泉风电基地
renewable energy
wind energy
dynamic optimization model
optimal control theory
Jiuquan wind power base
