摘要
以京津冀协同发展关键区域河北省为研究对象,综合运用描述性分析与向量自回归(VAR)模型,分析人口流动对区域经济发展的影响。研究发现,河北省人口流动呈现以流出为主、对省外人员吸引力不足的特征,产业结构则显著向服务化转型;VAR模型与脉冲响应分析进一步揭示,人口净流出对三次产业存在差异化作用:对第一产业贡献率影响不显著,对第二产业形成负面冲击,而对第三产业则表现为正向促进。基于上述结论,研究提出差异化调控路径:通过科技赋能推动农业内涵式发展,依托产业升级与人才政策扭转第二产业负面效应,并优化服务业结构以放大第三产业人口红利,为促进区域经济高质量发展提供建议与对策。
This study examines the impact of population mobility on regional economic development in Hebei Province,a key area in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy,using descriptive analysis and a Vector Autoregression(VAR)model.Results show that Hebei experiences net population outflows with limited capacity to attract external migrants,alongside a marked transition toward a service-oriented industrial structure.The VAR model and impulse-response analysis further reveal differential effects of net outflows across sectors:an insignificant impact on the primary industry,a negative shock to the secondary industry,and a positive effect on the tertiary sector.Based on these findings,the study proposes targeted regulatory measures:promoting intensive agricultural development through technological innovation,reversing negative trends in the secondary industry via industrial upgrading and talent policies,and optimizing the service sector to enhance its demographic dividend.These recommendations aim to support high-quality regional economic development.
作者
刘佩恒
张倩诺
郭士磊
方晓波
温美沙
LIU Pei-heng;ZHANG Qian-nuo;GUO Shi-lei;FANG Xiao-bo;WEN Mei-sha(College of Science,Hebei North University,Zhangjiakou,Hebei O75000,China;Bureau of Statistics of Zhangjiakou City,Hebei Province,Zhangjiakou,Hebei O75000,China)
出处
《河北北方学院学报(自然科学版)》
2025年第9期11-20,共10页
Journal of Hebei North University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
河北省教育厅基本科研业务费项目(No.JYT2024028)。
关键词
人口流动
经济发展
描述分析法
VAR模型
Population mobility
Economic development
Description analysis method
VAR model
