摘要
消防水泵作为建筑消防设施的核心设备之一,其启动可靠性会严重威胁生命财产安全。消防水泵启动可靠性影响因素复杂且具有不确定性,传统故障分析方法难以精准量化这些模糊因素,导致故障诊断与风险防控存在局限性。通过构建模糊故障树与蒙特卡洛仿真相结合的可靠性研究模型,将模糊理论引入故障树分析,有效处理失效因素的模糊性与不确定性,结合蒙特卡洛仿真技术,通过大量随机抽样模拟失效过程,实现对消防水泵启动失效定量化分析,求解出消防水泵在特定任务时间内各底事件的重要度和失效率。仿真结果表明,底事件x_((7~12))是引起消防水泵失效的主要成因,并以此制定科学防控策略,对提升消防系统整体安全性、降低火灾事故损失具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
As one of the core equipment in building fire protection facilities,the startup reliability of fire pumps poses a significant threat to life and property safety.The influencing factors of fire pump startup reliability are complex and uncertain,and traditional fault analysis methods struggle to accurately quantify these fuzzy factors,resulting in limitations in fault diagnosis and risk prevention and control.This paper establishes a reliability research model that combines the fuzzy fault tree with Monte Carlo simulation:It introduces fuzzy theory into fault tree analysis to effectively handle the fuzziness and uncertainty of failure factors,and integrates Monte Carlo simulation technology to simulate the failure process through a large number of random samplings.This enables quantitative analysis of fire pump startup failures,and calculates the importance and failure rate of each basic event within a specific mission time.The simulation results show that basic events x_((7~12))are the main causes of fire pump failures.Based on this,scientific prevention and control strategies are formulated,which hold important theoretical value and practical significance for improving the overall safety of fire protection systems and reducing losses caused by fire accidents.
作者
江松林
JIANG Songlin(Minxi Vocational College of Urban and Rural Construction,Longyan 364000,China)
出处
《电工技术》
2025年第22期52-57,共6页
Electric Engineering
关键词
模糊故障树
蒙特卡洛仿真
模糊集合理论
失效概率
概率重要度
fuzzy fault tree
Monte Carlo simulation
fuzzy set theory
failure probability
probability importance
