摘要
在未来气候变化情景下,预测我国新疆地区集中分布的重要药用和饲用植物——胀果甘草(Glycyrrhiza inflata Batal.)和光果甘草(Glycyrrhiza glabra L.)的适宜分布格局与变化趋势,由此指导2种甘草资源的科学保护。基于物种自然分布记录与25个环境变量,利用R语言ENMeval程序包优化最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,结合ArcGIS空间分析工具,模拟并预测当前和未来(2050s和2070s)气候下2种甘草的空间分布特征与变化趋势,并利用多种方法综合评价主导的环境因子。结果表明:1)对于胀果甘草和光果甘草,其理想模型参数分别为RM=0.5且FC=LQ,RM=2.5且FC=LQH,最优模型的最小信息量准则AICc值均为0;2)在当前气候下,光果甘草的适生分布比胀果甘草更广泛但也更破碎,其主要分布于塔里木盆地西缘(喀什市、疏附县、疏勒县、泽普县等)、西南缘(和田市)、北缘(库车市、库尔勒市)、伊犁河谷及塔城市等水分条件较好的平原和河谷地区,而胀果甘草主要分布于塔里木盆地西缘(喀什市、疏勒县、巴楚县、莎车县等)、西南缘(和田市)及北缘(库车市、库尔勒市、博湖县等)的冲积平原和冲积扇区域。未来气候变化情景下,胀果甘草的适生分布总体上将略微减少,而光果甘草将在塔城地区东部、昌吉回族自治州东部、吐鲁番市东部、哈密市中部等地扩增其适生分布;相比SSP1-2.6气候情景,SSP5-8.5情景对2种甘草适生分布的影响将更大;3)极端温度和温度变化范围因子及海拔主要限制了胀果甘草的分布;极端温度和极端降水因子及海拔主要限制了光果甘草的分布。基于优化MaxEnt模型的研究表明,未来气候变化下新疆胀果甘草的适宜分布可能缩减,光果甘草则可能在天山以北扩张,需制定差异化保护策略应对气候风险。
In the context of future climate change scenarios,predict the suitable distribution patterns and trends of the important medicinal and forage plants of the Leguminous genus Glycyrrhiza—Glycyrrhiza inflata Batal.and Glycyrrhiza glabra L.,which are predominantly distributed in the Xinjiang region of China,thereby guiding the scientific conservation of G.inflata and G.glabra.Based on species natural distribution records and 25 environmental variables,the R language ENMeval package was used to optimize the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model and ArcGIS spatial analysis tools to simulate and predict the spatial distribution characteristics and trends of two types of G.inflata and G.glabra in Xinjiang under current and future(2050s and 2070s)climates,and various methods were used to comprehensively screen the dominant environmental factors.The results showed:1)For G.inflata and G.glabra,their ideal model parameters are RM=0.5 and FC=LQ,RM=2.5 and FC=LQH,with the minimum information criterion AICc value of the optimal model being 0;2)Under the current climate,the suitable distribution of G.glabra is more extensive but also more fragmented compared to G.inflata.G.glabra is primarily distributed in the western Tarim Basin(Kashgar,Shufu,Shule,Zepu),the southwestern edge(Hotan),the northern edge(Kuqa,Korla),as well as the Ili River Valley and Tacheng,where water availability is relatively high in plains and river valleys.G.inflata is primarily distributed in the western Tarim Basin(Kashgar,Shule,Bachu,Shache),the southwestern edge(Hotan),and the northern edge(Kuqa,Korla,Bole),typically in alluvial plains and fan regions.Under future climate change scenarios,the suitable distribution of G.inflata is expected to generally decrease slightly,while the suitable distribution of G.glabra will expand its suitable distribution in areas such as the eastern part of Tacheng,the eastern part of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,the eastern part of Turpan,and the central part of Hami.Compared to the SSP1-2.6 climate scenario,the SSP5-8.5 scenario has a greater impact on the suitable distribution of G.inflata and G.glabra;3)Extreme temperature,temperature range,and altitude were the primary limiting factors for the distribution of G.inflata,whereas extreme temperatures,extreme precipitation factors,and elevation are the main factors restricting the distribution of G.glabra.Based on the optimized MaxEnt model,this study indicates that under future climate change scenarios,the suitable distribution range of G.inflata in Xinjiang is likely to contract,while G.glabra may expand north of the Tianshan Mountains,necessitating differentiated conservation strategies to mitigate climate-related risks.
作者
孙旭
戚英杰
薛杨
任孟原
张灵燕
马松梅
SUN Xu;QI Yingjie;XUE Yang;REN Mengyuan;ZHANG Lingyan;MA Songmei(College of Sciences,Shihezi University,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832003,China;General Grassland Station of Xinjiang,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830049,China)
出处
《石河子大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第6期736-745,共10页
Journal of Shihezi University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(32460094)
新疆维吾尔自治区草原总站草原生态修复治理项目(XJCYZZ202303)。
关键词
气候变化
优化的最大熵模型
胀果甘草
光果甘草
适宜分布
climate change
optimized MaxEnt model
Glycyrrhiza inflata Batal.
Glycyrrhiza glabra L.
suitable distribution
