摘要
黄土高原是我国干旱频发区域之一,干旱对生态环境及日常生活的负面影响尤为显著。基于CRITIC赋权法,综合考虑气象和农业干旱指标,构建一个综合性的干旱指数TVSS,并在此基础上结合趋势分析和游程理论对黄土高原地区的干旱变化趋势及干旱事件进行研究与分析。结果表明:基于CRITIC赋权法构建的不同时间尺度TVSS,通过相关性分析证实具有可靠性,且在过去的23年间共记录到28次综合干旱事件。分析干旱特征发现,干旱历时、烈度峰值以及总烈度均展现出下降趋势;黄土高原干旱频率整体呈现出西部高于东部、北部高于南部的分布趋势,遭遇全区域性干旱和局部性干旱占比分别为19.6%和18.5%,而区域性干旱和部分区域性干旱的发生频率则相对较低,分别为7.6%和8.7%;在2000-2022年,黄土高原TVSS指数变化趋势均表现出上升趋势,其中月尺度变化速率为0.0004·10a^(-1),季节尺度除冬季外其他季节变化速率都在0.3·10a^(-1)以上,年尺度变化速率为0.447·10a^(-1),揭示出了该区域干旱状况正逐步向湿润化的趋势发展。
As one of the key regions in China with frequent and highly influential droughts,the Loess Plateau has a particularly significant negative impact on the ecological environment and people’s lives.This study was based on the CRITIC weighting method,which comprehensively considers meteorological and agricultural drought indicators,aiming to construct a comprehensive drought index(TVSS).Based on this,trend analysis and trip theory were combined to study and analyze the drought change trend and drought events in the Loess Plateau region.The results showed that TVSS constructed based on the CRITIC weighting method at different time scales have been confirmed to be reliable through correlation analysis,and a total of 28 comprehensive drought events have been recorded in the past 23 years.Through analyzing the characteristics of drought,Fit was found that the duration,peak intensity,and total intensity of drought all showed a decreasing trend.The frequency of drought in the western part of the Loess Plateau was higher than that in the eastern part,and that in the northern part was higher than that in the southern part.The proportion of regional drought and local drought was 19.6%and 18.5%,respectively,while the frequency of regional drought and partial regional drought was relatively low,at 7.6%and 8.7%,respectively.From 2000 to 2022,the TVSS index of the Loess Plateau showed an upward trend,with the monthly change rate of 0.0004·10a^(-1),the seasonal change rate of 0.3·10a^(-1)except in winter,and the annual change rate of 0.447·10a^(-1),indicating that the drought situation in the region is gradually developing towards a humidifying trend.
作者
程西安
牛全福
王刚
邵东虎
朱登峰
王振宇
CHENG Xi’an;NIU Quanfu;WANG Gang;SHAO Donghu;ZHU Dengfeng;WANG Zhenyu(School of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou,Gansu 730050,China;Gansu Province Emergency Surveying and Mapping Engineering Research Center,Lanzhou,Gansu 730050,China;Academician Expert Workstation of Gansu Dayu Jiuzhou Space Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Lanzhou,Gansu 730050,China)
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
北大核心
2025年第6期271-281,328,共12页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42261069)。
