摘要
人工智能在生产领域引领数字智能化转型的同时也改变了劳动力市场中的职业结构与技能需求,导致微观个体面临更高的职业智能化替代风险。就家庭层面而言,户主面临的这种职业与收入的负面冲击将影响家庭的消费决策。文章以职业代码为桥梁,匹配到不同职业被人工智能职业替代的概率,结合最新发布的2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS2020),检验人工智能职业替代概率对家庭消费的影响,并探索其影响家庭消费的路径。研究发现:家庭户主的职业被人工智能替代概率的提升对于家庭消费存在负面影响,且这种负面影响存在结构性差异。机制分析表明,人工智能职业替代率可以通过降低户主收入和减少家庭社交的路径来影响家庭消费。基于此,政府可从增加数字技能职业培训、就业指导服务等方面入手,帮助相关劳动者进行高质量的二次就业。
While artificial intelligence leads the digital intelligent transformation in the production field,it also changes the occupational structure and skill demand in the labor market,causing the individuals to face higher risks of occupational intelligent substitution.From the family level,the negative impact of occupation and income faced by the head of household will affect the family's consumption decision.This paper uses occupation codes as a bridge to match the probability of artificial intelligence occupation substitution,combines the latest released data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS2020)to test the impact of artificial intelligence occupation substitution probability on household consumption,and explores the mechanism of this impact.We found that the increase in the probability of the household head's occupation being replaced by artificial intelligence has a negative impact on household consumption,and this negative impact has structural differences.Mechanism analysis shows that the artificial intelligence occupation substitution rate can affect household consumption by reducing the income of household heads and reducing family social interaction.Based on this,the government should offer more digital vocational training and employment guidance services to reduce the negative impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market,help them to obtain high-quality secondary employment.
作者
许南英
陈丹琰
蒋勋
XU Nanying;CHEN Danyan;JIANG Xun(School of Digital Commerce,Wuxi Vocational Institute of Commerce,Wuxi Jiangsu 214153,China;Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Data Engineering and Knowledge Services,Nanjing Jiangsu 210023,China)
出处
《甘肃科技纵横》
2025年第11期1-10,共10页
Gansu Science and Technology Information
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“大语言模型下基于多维量化分析的网络舆情演化规律挖掘及应用研究”(24BTQ049)
江苏省高校“青蓝工程”人才项目
江苏省高等教育教学改革研究课题“就业导向型数字经济微专业群动态建设机制研究”(2025JGYB720)。
关键词
人工智能
职业替代
家庭消费
artificial intelligence
occupation substitution
household consumption
