摘要
新能源规模化接入及极端天气导致电力需求剧烈波动的极端场景频发,对电力系统安全运行产生较大影响。针对这一问题,提出一种基于改进扩散模型的涵盖极端形态场景构建方法,模拟生成电力系统中各种可能的极端场景,为制定有效的策略和应对措施提供数据基础,降低试错成本。首先,定义低谷、平段、高峰3个时段的极端/正常状态,基于马尔科夫链构建各时段状态转移概率矩阵并生成场景状态集;然后,利用改进扩散模型生成各时段的不同形态数据,构建数据采样群,通过从数据采样群中随机采样并填充至场景状态集以实现场景构建;最后,通过算例分析,验证所提方法在涵盖极端形态的场景生成上的可靠性及高效性。
In the power system,the rapid integration of new energy and extreme weather leads to frequent extreme scenarios of severe fluctuations in power demand,which has a great impact on the safe operation of the power system.In order to solve this problem,this paper proposes a method of constructing extreme scenarios based on improved diffusion model.By simulating various possible extreme scenarios in power system,it can provide data basis for formulating effective strategies and countermeasures,and reduce the cost of trial and error.The definition of extreme and normal states of trough,flat and peak periods is proposed.Based on Markov chain,the state transition probability matrix of each period is constructed and the scene state set is generated.The improved diffusion model is used to generate different forms of data in each period,and the data sampling group is constructed.The scene construction is realized by randomly sampling from the data sampling group and filling it into the scene state set.Through the example analysis,the reliability and efficiency of the proposed method in the generation of scenes covering extreme forms are verified.
作者
窦迅
牛鹏艺
郑亚先
冯树海
石飞
杨函煜
DOU Xun;NIU Pengyi;ZHENG Yaxian;FENG Shuhai;SHI Fei;YANG Hanyu(College of Electrical Engineering and Control Science,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,Jiangsu Province,China;China Electric Power Research Institute Nanjing Section,Nanjing 222200,Jiangsu Province,China)
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
北大核心
2025年第23期9152-9164,I0007,共14页
PROCEEDINGS OF THE CHINESE SOCIETY FOR ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING
基金
国家电网有限公司科技项目(SGZJJH00DKJS2310199)。
