摘要
受气候和地貌等影响,深圳市多发频发短历时降雨,城市内涝灾害多发,造成了严重的经济损失。研究深圳市短历时雨潮遭遇,对于城市防洪排涝有重要的现实意义。基于深圳市1978—2019年西丽站降雨数据和赤湾站潮位数据,通过Copula函数优选选用Gumbel Copula函数构建年最大1 h降雨量与相应时段潮位、年最大1 h降雨量与年最大潮位的联合分布,选用Clayton Copula函数构建年最大潮位及其相应时段降雨的联合分布,建立深圳市短历时降雨和潮位的组合风险概率模型,计算分析雨潮10a、20a、50a、100a、200a一遇重现期下遭遇的同现风险概率、防涝风险概率。结果显示Copula函数能较好地拟合深圳市雨潮遭遇联合分布,雨潮遭遇的防涝风险概率远大于同现风险概率,且随着重现期的增加,雨潮遭遇同现风险概率和防涝风险概率均在降低。
Due to the influence of climate and topography,Shenzhen has experienced frequent short-term rainfall and urban flood disasters,resulting in serious economic losses.Research on the short-term rainfall and tidal situation in Shenzhen has important practical significance for urban flood control and drainage.Based on the rainfall data from Xili Station and tidal level data from Chiwan Station in Shenzhen from 1978 to 2019,the Gumbel Copula function is selected through Copula function optimization to construct the joint distribution of the annual maximum 1-hour rainfall and corresponding period tidal level,and the annual maximum 1-hour rainfall and corresponding period tidal level.The Clayton Copula function is used to construct the joint distribution of the annual maximum tidal level and its corresponding period rainfall.Meanwhile,a combined risk probability model of short-term rainfall and tidal level in Shenzhen is established to calculate and analyze the co-occurrence risk probability and flood prevention risk probability encountered during the recurrence periods of rainfall and tidal waves of 10a,20a,50a,100a,and 200a years.The results show that the Copula function can fit the joint distribution of rain and tide encounters in Shenzhen well.The probability of flood prevention risk encountered by rain and tide is much higher than the probability of co-occurrence risk,and with the increase of recurrence interval,the probability of co-occurrence risk encountered by rain and tide and flood prevention risk both decrease.
作者
杨成铭
吴辉明
YANG Chengming;WU Huiming(College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei,China;Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute,Guangzhou 510630,Guangdong,China)
出处
《水利发展研究》
2025年第11期204-211,共8页
Water Resources Development Research
关键词
雨潮遭遇
COPULA函数
联合分布
高度城镇化城市
短历时
encounter with rainfall and tide
Copula function
joint distribution
highly urbanized cities
short duration
