摘要
河川径流变化特征对流域洪旱灾害防治、生态治理、水资源开发利用等具有重要的指导作用。以1956—2020年马连河流域雨落坪水文站实测逐日径流量为对象,从量级、强度和频次3个方面构建了最大1日径流(Max1d)、最大3日径流(Max3d)、最大7日径流(Max7d)、最小1日径流(Min1d)、最小3日径流(Min3d)、最小7日径流(Min7d)、强径流量(R95)、极强径流量(R99)、弱径流量(R10)、极弱径流量(R5)、强径流量频数(Rd95)、极强径流量频数(Rd99)、弱径流量频数(Rd10)和极弱径流量频数(Rd5)等14个极端径流指标,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、累积距平法、有序聚类法和小波分析法,深入分析了马连河流域极端径流指标的趋势性、突变性及周期性变化特征。结果表明,Max1d、Max3d、Max7d、R99及Rd99呈下降趋势,R95、R10、R5、Rd95、Rd10及Rd5呈显著下降趋势,Min1d呈上升趋势,Min3d和Min7d呈显著上升趋势;Max1d、Max7d、R95、R99、Rd95及Rd99的突变年份为2004年,Max3d的突变年份为2005年,Min1d、Min3d及Min7d的突变年份为1970年,R10、R5、Rd10及Rd5的突变年份为1995年和2008年;14个极端径流指标的周期变化主要分为3~10a年际尺度的中振荡周期和11~40a年代际尺度的长振荡周期。
The variation characteristics of river runoff play an important guiding role in flood and drought disaster prevention of river basin,ecological management and water resources utilization.Based on the measured daily flow of Yuluoping Station in Malian River Basin from 1956 to 2020,from the three aspects of magnitude,intensity and frequency,this article constructs fourteen extreme runoff indexes,including annual maximum 1-day runoff(Max1d),annual maximum 3-days runoff(Max3d),annual maximum 7-days runoff(Max7d),annual minimum 1-day runoff(Min1d),annual minimum 3-days runoff(Min3d),annual minimum 7-days runoff(Min7d),strong runoff(R95),extremely strong runoff(R99),weak runoff(R10),extremely weak runoff(R5),strong runoff frequency(Rd95),extremely strong runoff frequency(Rd99),weak runoff frequency(Rd10)and extremely weakrunoff frequency(Rd5).The trend,mutation and periodicity of extreme runoff in Malian River Basinare analyzed by Mann-Kendall trend test,cumulative anomaly,sequential clustering and wavelet analysis.The results indicate that Max1d,Max3d,Max7d,R99 and Rd99 show a downward trend,R95,R10,R5,Rd95,Rd10 and Rd5 show a significantly downward trend,Min1d shows an upward trend,Min3d and Min7d show a significantly upward trend.The mutation years of Max1d,Max7d,R95,R99,Rd95 and Rd99 were 2004,the mutation year of Max3d was 2005,the mutation years of Min1d,Min3d and Min7d were 1970,and the mutation years of R10,R5,Rd10 and Rd5 were 1995 and 2008.The periodicity of 14 extreme runoff indexes can be mainly divided into 3~10a interannual scale medium oscillation period and 11~40a interdecadal scale long oscillation period.
作者
郭彦
张广明
王平
胡恬
耿旭
GUO Yan;ZHANG Guangming;WANG Ping;HU Tian;GENG Xu(Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450003,Henan,China;Key Laboratory of Lower Yellow River Channel and Estuary Regulation,Ministry of Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450003,Henan,China;Research Center of Yellow River Basin Conservation and Development,Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450003,Henan,China)
出处
《水利发展研究》
2025年第11期195-203,共9页
Water Resources Development Research
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3206203)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2243219、U2243218)
河南省重大科技专项项目(231100320100)
黄河水利科学研究院科技发展基金项目(黄科发202215)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2023-18)。
关键词
极端径流
变化特征
Mann-Kendall趋势检验法
累积距平法
有序聚类法
小波分析法
马连河流域
extreme runoff
variation characteristics
Mann-Kendall trend test method
cumulative anomaly method
sequential clustering method
wavelet analysis method
Malian River Basin
