摘要
目的分析1990-2019年中国居民精神分裂症发病趋势。方法根据全球疾病负担2019数据库中的数据,联合运用Joinpoint回归模型和年龄-时期-队列模型,使用平均年度变化百分比(average annual change percentage,AAPC)研究1990-2019年间中国居民精神分裂症发病率变化情况,分性别分析年龄、时期、出生队列对精神分裂症发病率变化的影响。结果1990-2019年,中国精神分裂症发病率总体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-0.57%,P<0.05),男性的下降速度小于女性(AAPC值分别为-0.50%、-0.66%,P<0.05)。年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示,年龄、时期、队列效应系数均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论近三十年中国居民精神分裂症的发病率下降,其中15~<50岁人群,特别是20~<25岁青年人群患精神分裂症的发病率显著高于其他年龄段,应当作为重点预防人群给予关注。
Objective To analyze the incidence trend of schizophrenia among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019.Methods Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort model were used together to study the change of incidence rate of schizophrenia in Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 using average annual change percentage(AAPC).The influence of age,period and birth cohort on the incidence of schizophrenia was analyzed by gender.Results From 1990 to 2019,the incidence of schizophrenia in China showed a downward trend(AAPC=-0.57%,P<0.05),and the decline rate of men was lower than that of women(AAPC values were-0.50%,-0.66%,P<0.05).The age-period-cohort model revealed statistically significant effects of age,period,and birth cohort on the incidence of schizophrenia.Conclusion Over the past 30 years,the incidence of schizophrenia among Chinese residents has decreased.However,individuals born between 1980 and 2004 experienced an increased risk of developing schizophrenia as they aged.Hence,individuals aged 15-<50,particularly those in the 20-<25 age group,should be the focus of preventive interventions.
作者
曾益康
卢城城
刘琛
林沅锜
陶振凯
刘仲文
ZENG Yikang;LU Chengcheng;LIU Chen;LIN Yuanqi;TAO Zhenkai;LIU Zhongwen(School of Health Management,Guangzhou Medical University,Guangzhou,510515,China;不详)
出处
《中国社会医学杂志》
2025年第6期748-753,共6页
Chinese Journal of Social Medicine
基金
广东省医学科学技术研究基金项目(A2023134)。
