摘要
目的探究1990-2021年全球、中国及不同社会人口指数(SDI)地区10岁以下儿童视网膜母细胞瘤(RB)疾病负担,并对全球和中国10岁以下不同性别、不同年龄分组儿童的RB疾病负担进行分析。方法基于2021年全球疾病负担数据库,分析1990-2021年10岁以下儿童RB的发病人数、死亡人数、伤残调整生命年(DALY)及相应的年龄标化率,进一步按不同性别、不同SDI地区及不同年龄分组进行描述性分析。最后通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2022-2040年全球和中国10岁以下儿童RB发病人数、死亡人数、DALY及相应的年龄标化率。结果2021年,全球10岁以下儿童RB的发病人数较1990年增长了34.27%,死亡人数和DALY较1990年分别下降了13.14%和12.85%;中国10岁以下儿童RB的发病人数、死亡人数、DALY分别为1102.43人、70.74人、6765.72人年,发病人数较1990年增加了99.73%,死亡人数和DALY分别下降了77.51%和75.59%;在10岁以下儿童中,RB的疾病负担存在显著的年龄和性别差异,全球0~6 d新生儿的RB疾病负担最高,而中国儿童则是在12~23个月RB疾病负担最高,并且全球和中国RB发病人数、死亡人数和DALY都在2~4岁达到峰值。预测到2040年,中国RB的发病人数和死亡人数将分别下降至890人和57人,较2021年分别下降19.24%和19.72%,但DALY呈现上升趋势。结论中国在儿童RB疾病防控、早期筛查和治疗方面取得了显著进展,但RB对患者长期生活质量的影响仍然较大,未来需要进一步提高筛查覆盖率,优化治疗方案,并加强对患者康复期的管理和支持。
Objective To investigate the burden of retinoblastoma(RB)among children<10 years globally,in China and in different sociodemographic index(SDI)regions from 1990 to 2021,and to analyze its patterns by gender and age group.Methods Using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database,we estimated the number of incident cases,number of deaths,and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)of RB among children<10 years from 1990 to 2021,along with the corresponding age-standardized rates.Further descriptive analyses were conducted by gender,SDI region,and age group.Finally,Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the number of incident cases,number of deaths,DALY,and the corresponding age-standardized rates globally and in China from 2022 to 2040.Results In 2021,the number of incident cases of RB among children<10 years worldwide increased by 34.27%compared with 1990,while the number of deaths and DALY decreased by 13.14%and 12.85%,respectively.The number of incident cases,number of deaths and DALY of RB among children<10 years in China were 1102.43,70.74 and 6765.72,respectively.The number of incident cases increased by 99.73%compared with 1990,while the number of deaths and DALY decreased by 77.51%and 75.59%,respectively.Among children<10 years,there were significant age and gender differences in the burden of RB.Globally,the burden of RB in newborns aged 0-6 d was the highest,while for Chinese children,the disease burden was the highest between 12 and 23 months.Moreover,the number of incident cases,number of deaths,and DALY reached their peaks at the age of 2-4 years globally and in China.It was predicted that by 2040,the incident cases and deaths of RB in China would drop to 890 and 57,respectively,decreased by 19.24%and 19.72%compared with 2021;however,DALY would show an upward trend.Conclusion Significant progress has been made in the prevention and control,early screening and treatment of RB among children in China.However,the impact of RB on the long-term quality of life of patients is still considerable,suggesting that we need to further increase the screening coverage rate,optimize the treatment regimens,and strengthen the management and support of patients during their recovery period.
作者
周宇
艾彬
潘佳豪
刘航宇
张裕
ZHOU Yu;AI Bin;PAN Jiahao;LIU Hangyu;ZHANG Yu(Office of Scientific and Academic Research,Naval Medical University(Second Military Medical University),Shanghai 200433,China;Center of Translational Medicine,Naval Medical University(Second Military Medical University),Shanghai 200433,China;Department of General Surgery(Ⅲ),The Second Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University(Second Military Medical University),Shanghai 200003,China;Department of General Surgery(Ⅲ),The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University,Dalian 116000,Liaoning,China)
出处
《海军军医大学学报》
北大核心
2025年第12期1573-1581,共9页
Academic Journal of Naval Medical University
关键词
视网膜母细胞瘤
全球疾病负担
中国
10岁以下儿童
retinoblastoma
global burden of disease
China
children under the age of 10 years
