摘要
【目的】揭示径流量演变规律及其驱动机制,为流域水资源的科学管理、合理配置以及生态系统的可持续保护提供理论依据和实践指导。【方法】基于1956—2023年石羊河流域蔡旗水文站径流量数据,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验、滑动t检验法进行变异诊断,在诊断的基础上采用双累积曲线法、数理统计法进行径流量变化归因分析。【结果】石羊河流域径流量在年尺度上经历了丰水期—平枯期—丰平期的变化;径流量在1971年经历了由多到少的显著变异,变异后径流量较变异前减少了50%;总体来看,径流量呈减小的变化趋势,减少速率为0.04亿m^(3)/a,这主要与流域内农业灌溉用水量的变化有关,水电站数量、耕地面积的增加和林地、草地、未利用地面积的减少对径流也有一定的影响。【结论】高强度人类活动是驱动径流量持续衰减的关键因素。
【Objective】The Shiyang River Basin is a typical arid and semi-arid inland river basin in Northwestern China;it provides water resources to maintain ecological security and agricultural production.However,global climate change,compounded by intensified human activities,over the past decades has significantly shifted runoff and posed a challenge to water resource stability and ecosystem sustainability in the region.This paper analyses the dynamic changes in the runoff,as well as the underlying driving factors.【Method】The analysis was based on hydrological data measured from 1956 to 2023 at the Caiqi Hydrological Station.The Mann-Kendall mutation test and the sliding t-test were used to identify temporal changes in the runoff.The double mass curve method and statistical analysis were used to identify factors that influence temporal variation in the runoff.【Result】The annual runoff in the basin showed three distinct periods from 1956 to 2023:shift from wet to normally dry,before becoming normally wet again.There was an abrupt change in the runoff in 1971,where the annual runoff decreased by approximately 50%compared to that before 1971.From 1956 to 2023,annual runoff in the basin decreased at an average rate of 0.04 billion m^(3)/year.Our results indicated that the increase in irrigation water consumption was the primary driver of the runoff decrease.Additionally,increase in hydropower stations,cultivated land and deforestation also added a negative impact on the runoff.【Conclusion】Increases in agricultural water use and change in land use are the key factors that result in the runoff decline in the Shiyang River Basin.
作者
宿强
SU Qiang(Gansu Wuwei Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Center,Wuwei 733000,China)
出处
《灌溉排水学报》
2025年第12期112-119,共8页
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage
基金
甘肃省科技重大专项(23ZDFA009)
甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广计划项目(22GSLK069)。
