摘要
本文根据我国国际收支(BOP)和外国附属机构(FATS)服务贸易统计数据,参考并改进世界贸易组织(WTO)发布的全球服务贸易分模式数据集(TiSMoS)构建方法,首次建立我国服务贸易四模式数据集(C-TiSMoS)。该数据集能够完整呈现服务贸易4种提供模式、主要服务领域、2015年至2020年我国服务贸易数据,补充和完善了以BOP跨境服务贸易统计为主导的我国服务贸易统计体系。基于我国服贸四模式数据集,本文进一步研判我国服务贸易的发展特征。研究发现,相比于BOP跨境服务贸易统计,我国服贸四模式数据集数据显示我国服务贸易规模大幅增大,服务贸易逆差扩大;商业存在是我国最重要的服务提供模式;商务和行政服务发展成为我国贸易规模最大的服务行业,各服务行业的贸易规模、贸易差额也呈现出与BOP跨境服务贸易不同的发展特征。此外,受新冠疫情影响,2020年我国服务贸易规模下降,但BOP跨境服务贸易统计高估了疫情对我国服务贸易的不利冲击,4种服务贸易提供模式中境外消费受疫情影响大幅缩减。我国服贸四模式数据集的构建和完善,为我国服务贸易的理论和政策研究提供重要的统计方法和数据基础。
This paper firstly establishes C-TiSMoS(China’s Trade in Services by Mode of Supply)dataset for the period 2015—2020.Based on China’s BOP and FATS trade in services statistics,this paper improves World Trade Organization’s method for constructing TiSMoS dataset.C-TiSMoS dataset can fully present China’s data of 4 modes of supply of trade in services and main sectors of services in 2015—2020,improving China’s existing statistical system dominated by cross-border trade in services statistics.This paper uses C-TiSMoS dataset to explore the development and characteristics of China’s trade in services.Through comparison with BOP statistical data,we find that the scale of China’s trade in services under C-TiSMoS statistics has significantly increased,with a larger trade deficit.Commercial presence is the most important supply mode in China,and the sector of commercial and administrative services has become the largest sector of China’s trade in services.The trade scale and trade balance of service sectors also exhibit different development characteristics from BOP statistics.At the same time,due to the impact of Covid-19 epidemic,China’s trade in services declined in 2020,but BOP statistics overestimated the impact of the epidemic on trade in services.The trade in services mostly affected by the epidemic was that of consumption abroad.C-TiSMoS dataset can be an important statistical foundation for better developing China’s trade in services theory and policy research.
作者
张艳
杨宏旭
贾怀勤
Zhang Yan;Yang Hongxu;Jia Huaiqin
出处
《统计研究》
北大核心
2025年第11期33-46,共14页
Statistical Research
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国服务业扩大开放、效率与产业安全协调发展政策研究”(20210052)
中央高校基础科研业务费专项基金资助。
