摘要
运用2005—2023年中国31个省市样本数据,借助双重差分模型设计政策准实验,考察了生育政策调整对各省的政策效应。结果表明:“单独二孩”与“全面二孩”政策在短期内促进了出生率回升,尤其全面二孩政策实施后的前三年,出生率平均提高0.787%。但中长期来看,出生率未能持续上升,反而呈下降趋势。区域分析表明,山东、广东等地出生率增长显著,而河南则受“全面二孩”政策抑制。“全面三孩”政策整体呈负向影响,这一结果反映出生育政策边际效应递减,短期刺激有限,长期提升难度大。
Using panel data from 31 provinces in China’s mainland from 2005 to 2023,this paper employs a difference-in-differences(DID)model to construct a quasi-experimental policy design and examine the effects of fertility policy adjustments across regions.The results show that both the“Selective Two-Child”and“Universal Two-Child”policies led to short-term increases in birth rates,with the universal policy raising the average birth rate by 0.787%in its first three years.However,in the medium to long term,the birth rate failed to sustain an upward trend and instead showed a continued decline.Regional analysis indicates significant increases in provinces such as Shandong and Guangdong,while in Henan,the“Universal Two-Child”policy had a suppressive effect.The“Universal Three-Child”policy showed an overall negative effect,reflecting the diminishing marginal returns of fertility policy,with limited short-term stimulus and considerable challenges to achieving long-term improvements.
作者
刘嘉桐
LIU Jia-tong(School of Public Administration,Shenyang Normal University,Shenyang Liaoning 110034)
出处
《湖南财政经济学院学报》
2025年第6期28-36,共9页
Journal of Hunan University of Finance and Economics
基金
辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题“辽宁省家庭生育成本约束评估与成本共担机制建设研究”(项目编号:2024lslybkt-097)。
关键词
生育政策调整
省际异质性
双重差分
政策效应
fertility policy adjustment
inter-provincial heterogeneity
Difference-in-differences(DID)
policy effects
