摘要
目的分析西藏自治区那曲市炭疽的流行规律及时空聚集特征,为优化防控策略提供科学依据。方法收集2019年1月至2023年12月那曲市炭疽病例资料信息(源自中国疾病预防控制信息系统)。采用描述性流行病学方法,并结合地理信息系统软件(ArcGIS 10.8)与时空扫描分析软件(SaTScan 9.5),通过三维趋势分析、空间自相关分析[全局空间自相关指标为莫兰指数(Moran′s I)、局域空间自相关指标为LISA聚集图]和时空聚类探测法,解析流行特征和时空分布模式。结果2019—2023年,那曲市累计报告炭疽病例95例,均为皮肤炭疽,年均报告发病率为3.73/10万。人群分布多见于30~44岁(48例,50.53%)、男性(78例,82.11%)、牧民(90例,94.74%)。报告发病数呈现明显季节性,6—10月累计报告数占比为50.53%(48/95)。地区分布呈"中西部高发、南高北低"特征,申扎、嘉黎县年均发病率>20.00/10万。2020、2022年及5年年均发病率均存在显著空间自相关(Moran′s I=0.119~0.183,均P<0.001),时空扫描识别3类聚集区[相对危险度(RR)=26.98~165.60],分别对应西南部、中部暴雨期(7—8月)与屠宰高峰期(9—10月)。结论那曲市皮肤炭疽发病以中西部牧区为核心,受降雨量增多、牧业密集生产、牧民防护意识薄弱等多因素驱动。建议防控工作需建立气象与牧业数据融合的时空预警模型,规范病死畜无害化处理,强化藏语宣教与经济补偿,实现精准防控。
ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemic patterns and spatiotemporal clustering characteristics of anthrax in Naqu City,Xizang Autonomous Region,and to provide a scientific basis for optimizing prevention and control strategies.MethodsData on anthrax cases in Naqu City from January 2019 to December 2023 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.Descriptive epidemic methods,combined with Geographic Information System software(ArcGIS 10.8)and spatiotemporal scan analysis software(SaTScan 9.5),were employed.By using three-dimensional trend analysis,spatial autocorrelation(Global Moran's I for global spatial autocorrelation and LISA cluster maps for local spatial autocorrelation)and spatiotemporal clustering detection method,the epidemic features and spatiotemporal distribution patterns were analyzed.ResultsFrom 2019 to 2023,a total of 95 anthrax cases were reported in Naqu City,all of which were cutaneous anthrax,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 3.73 per 100000.The population distribution was more common in individuals aged 30 to 44(48 cases,50.53%),males(78 cases,82.11%),and herders(90 cases,94.74%).The number of reported cases showed a distinct seasonality,with a cumulative proportion of 50.53%(48/95)from June to October.The regional distribution was characterized as"high in the central-western region,higher in the south and lower in the north."The average annual incidence rate in Shenzha and Lhari Counties was>20.00 per 100000.Significant spatial autocorrelation was observed for the years 2020,2022,and the five-year average annual incidence rate(Moran's I=0.119-0.183,P<0.001).Spatiotemporal scan analysis identified three clusters[Relative Risk(RR)=26.98-165.60],corresponding to the southwestern and central regions during the rainy season(July-August)and the peak slaughtering period(September-October).ConclusionsThe incidence of cutaneous anthrax in Naqu City is concentrated in the central-western pastoral areas,driven by multiple factors such as rainfall,intensive animal husbandry,and weak awareness of protection among herdsmen.It is necessary to establish a meteorological animal husbandry monitoring and early warning model,standardize the harmless treatment of diseased and dead livestock,strengthen Tibetan language education and economic compensation,and achieve precise prevention and control.
作者
云丹尖措
段青
张丽杰
Yundanjiancuo;Duan Qing;Zhang Lijie(Department of Health Monitoring,Naqu City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xizang Autonomous Region,Naqu 852000,China;Field Epidemiology Training Program,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100050,China;Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250014,China)
出处
《中华地方病学杂志》
北大核心
2025年第11期884-889,共6页
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
基金
公共卫生人才培养支持项目(2023)。
关键词
炭疽
流行特征
时空聚集性
防控策略
Anthrax
Epidemic characteristics
Spatiotemporal clustering
Prevention and control strategies
