摘要
目的 构建Ⅰ类切口手术抗菌药物预防使用率的最优差分整合移动平均自回归(ARIMA)模型,预测2025年该指标的变化趋势。方法本研究基于Ⅰ类切口手术抗菌药物预防使用率的数据,根据最小信息化准则(AIC)最小化原则,构建ARIMA模型,并根据模型预测Ⅰ类切口手术抗菌药物预防使用率。结果Ⅰ类切口手术抗菌药物预防使用率从2021年的31.06%显著下降至2024年的18.47%,其中2022年、2023年分别为25.72%和22.70%,根据AIC最小化原则,构建ARIMA(1,1,1)模型,预测结果表明,2025年使用率预计为12.37%(95%CI:4.90%~19.84%),呈现持续下降趋势。结论ARIMA模型预测2025年Ⅰ类切口手术抗菌药物预防使用率将继续降低。ARIMA模型可有效捕捉时间序列规律,能够准确反映医院抗菌药物使用变化趋势,为优化用药策略提供科学依据。
Objective To construct a prediction model for the antimicrobial prophylaxis utilization rate in Type I incision surgeries and forecast the trend of this indicator by 2025.Methods This study was based on data regarding the prophylactic anti biotic usage rate for Type l incision surgeries.Following the principle of minimizing the AIC,an optimal ARIMA model was con structed.The model was then employed to predict the prophylacticantibiotic usage rate for Type Iincision surgeries.Results The rate of antimicrobial prophylaxis for Class I incision surgeries decreased significantly from 31.06%in 2021 to 18.47% in 2024,with rates of 25.72%and 22.70% in 2022 and 2023,respectively.Based on the AIC minimization principle,an ARIMA(1,1,1)model was constructed.The prediction results indicated that the utilization rate in 2025 was projected to be 12.37%(95%CI:4.90%~19.84%),showed a sustained downward trend.ConclusionThe ARIMA model can effectively cap ture the patterns of time series and accurately reflect the trends in the use of antibacterial drugs in hospitals,and it may provide a scientific basis for optimizing medication strategies.
作者
桂娜
雍建东
王丽琴
闫丽
梁雪
GUI Na;YONG Jiandong;WANG Liqin;YAN Li;LIANG Xue(Quality Management Office,Helan County People's Hospital,Yinchuan 750200,China)
出处
《宁夏医学杂志》
2025年第11期950-952,F0003,共4页
Ningxia Medical Journal
