摘要
【目的】构建基于温度的金纹细蛾种群动态模型,准确预测苹果园金纹细蛾年发生代数与各虫态发生高峰期。【方法】在不同温度条件下,测定了金纹细蛾越冬蛹、一代卵、幼虫、蛹的生长发育历期、成虫产卵量和寿命,利用以上数据构建金纹细蛾越冬蛹羽化模型、成虫产卵模型和阶段发育模型。【结果】金纹细蛾越冬蛹的发育起点温度为7.06℃,有效积温常数为307.6 d·℃。进一步研究发现,温度对成虫的寿命和产卵量均有显著影响。雌成虫平均寿命由15.6℃条件下的18.3 d缩短至32.3℃下的6.3 d,产卵量在32.3℃下最低,平均为9.9粒·雌^(-1),15.6℃条件下最高,为65.2粒·雌^(-1)。金纹细蛾卵-蛹的总发育历期随着温度升高而缩短,从13.3℃下的76.4 d缩短至26.1℃下的25.9 d。种群动态模型包括3个子模型:越冬蛹羽化模型、成虫产卵模型和阶段发育模型。越冬蛹羽化模型是基于累积的有效积温,运用2参数-Weibull公式模拟成虫的羽化情况。成虫产卵模型包括4个子模型:老化速率模型、总产卵量模型、产卵速率模型和存活率模型。卵-蛹的阶段发育模型可由发育速率模型、累计分布模型和存活率模型构建。【结论】构建了基于温度的金纹细蛾种群动态模型,能够为金纹细蛾的发生动态预测预报提供新方法,也能够为其他昆虫种群模型的构建提供参考。
【Objective】To construct a temperature-dependent population dynamic model for Phyllonorycter ringoniella that accurately predicts its annual generation count and the timing of each life stage in apple orchards.【Method】Various temperatures were used to assess the developmental periods of overwintering pupae,the first generation eggs,larvae and pupae,as well as adult fecundity and lifespan.Mathematical formulas were employed to create models for emergence model,adult fecundity,and stage development.【Result】The lower threshold temperature for overwintering pupae was 7.06℃,with a thermal constant of 307.6 degree days.Temperature significantly influenced adult fecundity and lifespan.Female longevity decreased from 18.3 days at 15.6℃to 6.3 days at 32.3℃.Egg production was lowest at 32.3℃(9.9 eggs per female)and highest at 15.6℃(65.2 eggs per female).As temperature increased,the total developmental time from egg to pupa decreased from 76.4 days at 13.3℃to 25.9 days at 26.1℃.The population dynamic model includes three sub-models:the emergence model for overwintering pupae,the adult fecundity model,and the stage development model.The emergence model of overwintering pupae relies on accumulated effective accumulated temperature,with adult emergence simulated using a 2-parameter Weibull formula.The adult fecundity model comprises four sub-models:aging rate,total fecundity,laying rate and survival rate model.The stage development model for egg and pupae is constructed using the development rate model,cumulative distribution model,and survival rate model.【Conclusion】A temperature-dependent population dynamics model for the Asiatic apple leaf miner(P.ringoniella)was successfully established,offering a novel approach for forecasting and predicting of the occurrence dynamics,and also serving as a reference for the construction of population models for other insects.
作者
耿书宝
陈磊
侯贺丽
刘晓光
张方梅
乔利
周国涛
JUNG Chuleui
GENG Shubao;CHEN Lei;HOU Heli;LIU Xiaoguang;ZHANG Fangmei;QIAO Li;ZHOU Guotao;JUNG Chuleui(School of Agronomy,Xinyang Agriculture and Forestry University,Xinyang 464000,China;School of Food Science and Engineering,Xinyang Agriculture and Forestry University,Xinyang 464000,China;College of Plant Protection,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Henan Yunfei Technology Development Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Andong National University,Andong 36729,Korea)
出处
《河南农业大学学报》
北大核心
2025年第6期1058-1065,共8页
Journal of Henan Agricultural University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(32402364)
河南省科技攻关项目(242102110178)
河南省国际科技合作项目(242102520042)。
关键词
金纹细蛾
温度
种群模型
苹果害虫
生长发育
Phyllonorycter ringoniella
temperature
population model
apple pest
development
