摘要
With the large-scale population flow between regions and the gradual disappearance of the“demographic dividend,”promoting the accumulation of higher education human capital and leveraging the“talent dividend”have become the important driving forces for the development of new-type urbanization.Therefore,understanding the relationship between higher education human capital and new-type urbanization is a scientific issue that needs to be addressed.The results of this study demonstrate three features of that relationship:(1)From 2010 to 2020,the level of higher education human capital in Guizhou Province showed a continuous increase and a spatial distribution pattern of gradual decline in a stepwise“central-northwest-southeast”manner.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the level of new-type urbanization in Guizhou Province gradually increased,forming a dual-core development pattern with the“Qianzhong Urban Cluster”and the“Zunyi Metropolitan Area”.Overall,it exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of gradual decline from northwest to southeast.(3)Threshold effect model results indicate that higher education human capital promotes new-type urbanization when below a single threshold or above a double threshold,but hinders it when between these thresholds.This results in an“N”-shaped developmental relationship.
随着地区间人口大规模流动以及“人口红利”逐渐消失,促进高等教育人力资本的积累,发挥“人才红利”,是当前推动新型城镇化发展的重要驱动力,所以高等教育人力资本与新型城镇化存在何种关系,是亟需回答的科学问题。因此本文以贵州省为案例地,综合运用熵值法以及门槛效应模型,研究贵州省县域高等教育人力资本和新型城镇化水平时空演变特征,揭示高等教育人力资本对新型城镇化的影响机制。结果表明:(1)2010-2020年贵州省高等教育人力资本水平不断上升,在空间上呈现出“中部—西北部—东南部”阶梯式逐渐递减的分布态势;(2)2010-2020年贵州省新型城镇化水平逐渐提高,形成“黔中城市群”与“合肥都市圈”双核心发展格局,总体上呈现出“自西北向东南”逐渐递减的分布态势;(3)门槛效应模型结果显示,当高等教育人力资本水平小于单一门槛值时,对新型城镇化发展起到促进作用,位于单一门槛值和双重门槛值之间时,对新型城镇化发展起到阻碍作用,大于双重门槛值时,对新型城镇化发展起到促进作用,两者之间呈现出“N”字形发展关系。
基金
The National Natural Science Foundation of China(41261039)
The Research on the Seventh National Population Census Project in Guizhou(8300-202201020036)。
